http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030307-092710-3308r
I note the passage:
For the Iraqi Army and totalitarian civilian regime shows no sign of cracking and coming apart. Not even close. There has been so far a handful of defectors to the United States or to other countries, especially Jordan and Turkey. But they have been numbered in their dozens, not their hundreds and thousands as the Office of the Secretary of Defense civilian war hawks had confidently predicted and expected.
This was the sort of reason I raised the question about Iraq's political economy. There is no doubt that Saddam has used terror as a means of state policy, but that is not so far back in the history of most states. I presume there will be evidence of continued ruthless suppress of political opponents. But what we need to check is how the regime has stabilised during a period of severe sanctions that were supposed to cause an uprising. All states have to make some gestures to win public acceptance and tolerance of the rulers sense of justice. To an extent these concessions to justice and collectivity are genuine, or provide forums that can be used.
It is quite possible that by 2000 Iraq had become something closer to the last years of East Germany: a state with a network of informers restricting the open expression of opposition views but nevertheless with forums for collective discussion and bonding. Including discussion of the meaning of socialism.
Certainly the censored news clips appear to be able to come up with thoughtful comments from Iraqis. The US occupation strategy is to use the Iraqi army to keep civil order. It will be interesting and important to see what sort of debate emerges after the departure of Saddam. None of this is an argument for that invasion: rather that modern single party states can develop a degree of civil society which could have encouraged the regime to take part in more sophisticated negotiations with the would be rulers of the world, had those rulers offered a more sophisticated lead than "resign or be overthrown." The French and the Germans (with their tradition of Ostpolitik) know this well.
The Hawks simply cannot follow the plot because they do not understand it, but most of the rest of the countries of the world do. It is almost as if the hawks have got some sort of embarrassing skills deficit. Unfortunately it will lead to thousands of people being killed, and tens of thousands if not 100's of thousands becoming refugees, before the United States and Congress realise the hawks have an embarrassing handicap.
Chris Burford
London
