extrapolation is almost always wrong (except in the short term).
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Eubulides [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wed 12/17/2003 4:43 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc:
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] what knowledge economy?
----- Original Message -----
From: "Devine, James" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Who is Derek De Solla Price and what does he say in general?
=================
He was the originator of what is known as scientometrics; a strategy for
measuring the rate of growth of scientific knowledge. He wrote a very
influential book called 'Little Science, Big Science' back in the
optimistic part of the 1960's and later updated it. He asserted that if
the growth trajectory of science continued at the rates observed since
1750 we would have two scientists for every man, woman, child and dog
sometime this century. It was/is known as the scientific doomsday
argument. F.M. Scherer has worked out some of the implications of D dS P's
argument for productivity growth in his book "New Perspectives on Economic
Growth and Technological Innovation" which Michael Perelman called F.M.
Scherer lite.
Ian
