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Measuring the Measures:
Here's where the economy was 3 months ago: WSJ 9/8:
US
manufacturing capacity mid1995-2000 grew by one third, largest
increase in 50 years. However, since 2001, paper, textile, metals industries have closed so many plants, capacity is back to 1995 levels. 1999-2003, Transatlantic fiber capacity increased by a factor 14. No new cables are planned for the forseeable future. Airlines have grounded 2000 aircraft. US office vacancy rates for 2Q 2003 at 17.6% (record is 18% in 1991 recession). Ford will reduce North American production capacity by 15%. And there: Financial Times 9/10. After worst downturn in 20 years, chemical industry has reduced capacity to the 1993 level. China's petrochemical consumption between 1998-2003 increased 40%. Petrochemical estimating [hoping] for a further 60% growth by 2006. WSJ 9/10-- In first half 2003, global offic vacancy rates increase worldwide and rents fall. In Africa, Europe and Middle East vacancy rate up 1.1%, rents down 4%. Asia Pacific, slight decline to 15.4%. but rents down 5.4%. HongKong rate at 16.1%, rents down 12.4% Latin America at 17% vacancy, rents down 5.4% __________________________
So, are there indications of a turnaround in
capacity utilization? No. And I don't think the bourgoisie have
dismantled enough capacity yet. So another incident will erupt that will
define the hard landing of the economy.
dms
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