Browning, E. S. 2004. "Investors Take Cycles for a Spin." Wall Street Journal (26 January): p. C 1. The Presidential Cycle: Going back to Benjamin Harrison's election during 1888, stocks have tended to do best in the third year of a presidential term -- the year before the election year. The pattern has continued since, with some big exceptions, such as Herbert Hoover, whose third year was 1931. Stocks rose only 2% in the third year of Ronald Reagan's second term, although he wasn't running for re-election. Stocks rose 34% during the third year of Bill Clinton's first term, and 26% last year, according to a study by Ned Davis Research in Venice, Fla., based on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.
-- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
