I am aware of both, except one is real and the other is not. The data does not support the scarcity scenario as I showed, I think, in the body of the text. The Apocalypse Pretty Soon theory does not drive nor explain capitalism's maneuvers, nor is the "theory" itself internally consistent as the "peak" of production keeps changing.
The most optimistic predictions in no way suggest oil shortages by mid century-- what might be short is profits. Right now, 2D and 3D computer assisted seismic exploration has been dramatically curtailed. The reasons for that are "economic" not natural In any case, resources lose their "natural" state once they are appropriated into the social process of reproduction. Nevertheless, the point of the posting was not to engage in the great hydrocarbon debate-- but to, without equivocation, propose an answer to Michael's question. I would love to read other answer's to that particular question, which I, personally, find much more relevant to the practical prospects of class struggles than calls to be the guardians of the future, particularly since the future proposed by the guardians of the scarcity theory, is a regression. dms ----- Original Message ----- From: "Louis Proyect" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004 9:00 PM Subject: Re: [PEN-L] flaring off > There are two phenomena at work here, but David only seems aware of one of > them. Oil is a commodity just like any other commodity. Due to the > irrationality of the market system, there can be periodic gluts of oil just > like there was an excess capacity of Japanese real estate. On the other > hand, there is such a thing as finite resources under capitalism. Water is > one of them. In my opinion, this is an even more apocalyptic prospect than > oil depletion. Even among the most optimistic predictions, we are talking > about severe oil shortages by the mid-century. I am of the opinion that > socialists must adopt the outlook of guardians of future generations. > Unless we can project a sustainable future, we will not be taken seriously > by ecology-minded scientists. Just as Marx was consumed by the threat of > soil sterility (a problem that has never been fully resolved), so must we > be engaged with the inter-related problems of global warming, energy > supplies and transportation. That is, if we want to be taken seriously. > > > Louis Proyect > Marxism list: www.marxmail.org >
