From Casi-news clippings originally from Salon. Sorry about the formatting,
thats the way it came to me, but it seems a worthwhile article on Chalabi's
background and machinations.

Cheers, Ken Hanly

This is long....

How Ahmed Chalabi conned the neocons

The hawks who launched the Iraq war believed the deal-making exile when he =
promised to build a secular democracy with close ties to Israel. Now the Is=
rael deal is dead, he's cozying up to Iran -- and his patrons look like the=
y're on the way out. A Salon.com exclusive.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
By John Dizard

May 4, 2004 | When the definitive history of the current Iraq war is finall=
y written, wealthy exile Ahmed Chalabi will be among those judged most resp=
onsible for the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq and topple Sa=
ddam Hussein. More than a decade ago Chalabi teamed up with American neocon=
servatives to sell the war as the cornerstone of an energetic new policy to=
 bring democracy to the Middle East -- and after 9/11, as the crucial antid=
ote to global terrorism. It was Chalabi who provided crucial intelligence o=
n Iraqi weaponry to justify the invasion, almost all of which turned out to=
 be false, and laid out a rosy scenario about the country's readiness for a=
n American strike against Saddam that led the nation's leaders to predict -=
- and apparently even believe -- that they would be greeted as liberators. =
Chalabi also promised his neoconservative patrons that as leader of Iraq he=
 would make peace with Israel, an issue of vital importance to them. A year=
 ago, Chalabi was
 riding high, after Saddam Hussein fell with even less trouble than expecte=
d.

Now his power is slipping away, and some of his old neoconservative allies =
-- whose own political survival is looking increasingly shaky as the U.S. o=
ccupation turns nightmarish -- are beginning to turn on him. The U.S. rever=
sed its policy of excluding former Baathists from the Iraqi army -- a polic=
y devised by Chalabi -- and Marine commanders even empowered former Republi=
can Guard officers to run the pacification of Fallujah. Last week United Na=
tions envoy Lakhdar Brahimi delivered a devastating blow to Chalabi's futur=
e leadership hopes, recommending that the Iraqi Governing Council, of which=
 he is finance chair, be accorded no governance role after the June 30 tran=
sition to sovereignty. Meanwhile, administration neoconservatives, once uni=
ted behind Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress he founded, are now spli=
t, as new doubts about his long-stated commitment to a secular Iraqi democr=
acy with ties to Israel, and fears that he is cozying up to his Shiite co-r=
eligionists in Iran,
 begin to emerge. At least one key Pentagon neocon is said to be on his way=
 out, a casualty of the battle over Chalabi and the increasing chaos in Ira=
q, and others could follow.

"Ahmed Chalabi is a treacherous, spineless turncoat," says L. Marc Zell, a =
former law partner of Douglas Feith, now the undersecretary of defense for =
policy, and a former friend and supporter of Chalabi and his aspirations to=
 lead Iraq. "He had one set of friends before he was in power, and now he's=
 got another." While Zell's disaffection with Chalabi has been a long time =
in the making, his remarks to Salon represent his first public break with t=
he would-be Iraqi leader, and are likely to ripple throughout Washington in=
 the days to come.

Zell, a Jerusalem attorney, continues to be a partner in the firm that Feit=
h left in 2001 to take the Pentagon job. He also helped Ahmed Chalabi's nep=
hew Salem set up a new law office in Baghdad in late 2003. Chalabi met with=
 Zell and other neoconservatives many times from the mid-1990s on in London=
, Turkey, and the U.S. Zell outlines what Chalabi was promising the neocons=
 before the Iraq war: "He said he would end Iraq's boycott of trade with Is=
rael, and would allow Israeli companies to do business there. He said [the =
new Iraqi government] would agree to rebuild the pipeline from Mosul [in th=
e northern Iraqi oil fields] to Haifa [the Israeli port, and the location o=
f a major refinery]." But Chalabi, Zell says, has delivered on none of them=
. The bitter ex-Chalabi backer believes his former friend's moves were a de=
liberate bait and switch designed to win support for his designs to return =
to Iraq and run the country.

Chalabi's ties to Iran -- Israel's most dangerous enemy -- have also alarme=
d both his allies and his enemies in the Bush administration. Those ties we=
re highlighted on Monday, when Newsweek reported that "U.S. officials say t=
hat electronic intercepts of discussions between Iranian leaders indicate t=
hat Chalabi and his entourage told Iranian contacts about American politica=
l plans in Iraq." According to one government source, some of the informati=
on he gave Iran "could get people killed." A Chalabi aide denied the allega=
tion. According to Newsweek, the State Department and the CIA -- Chalabi's =
longtime enemies -- were behind the leak: "the State Department and the CIA=
 are using the intelligence about his Iran ties to persuade the president t=
o cut him loose once and for all."

But the neocons have bigger problems than Chalabi. As the intellectual arch=
itects of an "easy" war gone bad, they stand to pay the price. The first to=
 go may be Zell's old partner Douglas Feith. Military sources say Feith wil=
l resign his Defense Department post by mid-May. His removal was reportedly=
 a precondition imposed by Ambassador to the U.N. John Negroponte when he a=
greed to take over from Paul Bremer as the top U.S. official in Iraq. "Feit=
h is on the way out," Iraqi defense minister (and Chalabi nephew) Ali Allaw=
i says confidently, and other sources confirm it. Feith's boss, Undersecret=
ary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, may follow. Bush political mastermind Karl R=
ove is said to be determined that Wolfowitz move on before the November ele=
ction, even if he comes back in a second Bush term. Sources say one of the =
positions being suggested is the director of Central Intelligence.

In part, the White House political crew is reacting to pressure from the un=
iformed military, which is becoming a quiet but effective enemy of the neoc=
ons. The White House seems to be performing triage to save the political ca=
pital of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney, =
Iraq hawks who have close ties to the neocons. "Rumsfeld and Cheney stay," =
says an Army officer. "Powell has his guy Negroponte in there. But the neoc=
ons are losing power day by day."

Why did the neocons put such enormous faith in Ahmed Chalabi, an exile with=
 a shady past and no standing with Iraqis? One word: Israel. They saw the i=
nvasion of Iraq as the precondition for a reorganization of the Middle East=
 that would solve Israel's strategic problems, without the need for an acco=
mmodation with either the Palestinians or the existing Arab states. Chalabi=
 assured them that the Iraqi democracy he would build would develop diploma=
tic and trade ties with Israel, and eschew Arab nationalism.

Now some influential allies believe those assurances were part of an elabor=
ate con, and that Chalabi has betrayed his promises on Israel while cozying=
 up to Iranian Shia leaders. Whether because of intentional deception or a =
realistic calculation of what the Iraqi people will accept, it's clear that=
 Chalabi won't be delivering on his bright promises to ally a democratic Ir=
aq with Israel. Had the neocons not been deluded by gross ignorance of the =
Arab world and blinded by wishful thinking, they would have realized that t=
he chances that Chalabi or any other Iraqi leader could deliver on such pro=
mises were always remote. In fact, they need have looked no further than th=
e Israeli media: A long piece in Israel's Jerusalem Report magazine publish=
ed nine days before the war began last year featured Israelis who dismissed=
 Chalabi's promises about Israel as a political ploy, "a means by which to =
appeal to the Jewish lobby and, in turn, the administration."

"Chalabi has no use for Israel. He knew all along that this was a nonstarte=
r," says Robert Baer, a former CIA field officer who led covert U.S. operat=
ions inside Iraq in the mid-1990s aimed at toppling Saddam. "Chalabi knows =
exactly what Israel stands for in Iraq and in Iran, with or without Saddam.=
 The idea of building the pipeline to Haifa, or rapprochement with Iran ...=
 I'm sure he told [the neocons] these things could happen, that he played t=
o their prejudices and said, 'This is the new Middle East,' but he didn't b=
elieve any of it. That's the way Chalabi operates."

"He was willing to ally with anyone to get where he is now, whether it was =
the neocons, the Israelis or the Iranians," adds Baer. "He wanted back into=
 Iraq and nothing was going to stop him."

It could have been predicted that Chalabi would want to deal with Israel's =
enemies in Iran. He and his relatives have made that clear. As Iraq's defen=
se minister, Ali Allawi, says, "We have a lot of problems in common with Ir=
an. If we could involve them in a regional security agreement with us, that=
 would be very fruitful." Still, Chalabi's visit to Iran last December and =
his repeated assertions that peace in Iraq requires peace with Iran first a=
larmed, then embittered, his old friends.

Chalabi's neoconservative friends, however, seem to have looked away from e=
vidence that the businessman has always allied himself with whomever can he=
lp him the most. In the 1980s, Chalabi's scandal-plagued Petra Bank funnele=
d money to Amal, a Shia militia allied with Iran in Lebanon. And according =
to a former CIA case officer who worked in Iraq, Chalabi had close ties to =
the Iranian regime when he was in Kurdish Northern Iraq in the mid-1990s tr=
ying to foment resistance to Saddam. He even dealt with Saddam himself when=
 the price was right, and initiated a method to finance the dictator's trad=
e with Jordan in the 1980s through his Petra Bank.

Chalabi's Arab admirers say they knew he'd never make good on his promises =
to ally with Israel. "I was worried that he was going to do business with t=
he Zionists," confesses Moh'd Asad, the managing director of the Amman, Jor=
dan-based International Investment Arabian Group, an industrial and agricul=
tural exporter, who is one of Chalabi's Palestinian friends and business pa=
rtners. "He told me not to worry, that he just needed the Jews in order to =
get what he wanted from Washington, and that he would turn on them after th=
at."

Ahmed Chalabi refused to speak to Salon. He has denounced U.N. envoy Brahim=
i as an "Arab nationalist" and compared the U.S. decision to bring back som=
e former Iraqi soldiers to "allowing Nazis into the German government immed=
iately after World War II." Douglas Feith, Chalabi's longtime ally and spon=
sor, also declined a request for an interview. Nevertheless, the outline of=
 the new conflict between the Shiite former exile and his erstwhile sponsor=
s is clear, based on interviews with Iraqi officials, U.S. military personn=
el and intelligence officers, and politically connected Israelis.

The crux of the conflict is Iran, and whether the U.S. should try to make a=
 deal with the Islamic Republic to enlist its support for peace in Iraq. Be=
fore and immediately after the war, the neoconservative position was that U=
.S. empowerment of the long-disenfranchised Shia community would make possi=
ble an Iraqi government that would make a "warm peace" with Israel. This in=
 turn would pressure the rest of the Arab world to make a similar peace, wi=
thout the need to concede land to the Palestinians.

This was, of course, a pipe dream: The Shia community in Iraq, like the Sun=
ni community, is overwhelmingly anti-Israel, and the entire range of its le=
adership has close ties with Iran. Belatedly realizing that Chalabi's promi=
se to build a secular, pro-Israel Shiite government is not going to come tr=
ue, in the past couple of months the neocons in the Defense Department have=
 tried to come up with a new plan. Feith, Wolfowitz and others are backing =
away from the Shia, due to their ties to Iran as well as Chalabi's deceptio=
ns. They are trying to cobble together a coalition of rehabilitated Sunni M=
uslim Iraqi Army officers and Kurdish leaders backed by their militias that=
 would have Shia participation, but in a reduced role. For proponents of th=
is strategy, the front-runner to be prime minister of the next version of t=
he transitional government is Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, the founder an=
d leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

This policy has very little support. It's opposed by those neocons who stil=
l back Ahmed Chalabi and his Shia allies -- including influential former De=
fense Policy Board chair Richard Perle, along with neocon intellectuals Mic=
hael Ledeen, Bernard Lewis and Barbara Lerner. Although they like Talabani,=
 they oppose the tilt toward the Sunnis, and some are still adamant that Ch=
alabi play a role. "He's effective in bringing groups of Iraqis together, s=
omething he's done for many years," Perle said on CNN on March 28. "He beli=
eves in democracy. I have complete confidence in him, and I hope the people=
 of Iraq are wise enough to see his benefits."

The shift in strategy toward Talabani is also being dismissed, for differen=
t reasons, by National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of Stat=
e Colin Powell, John Negroponte, the new ambassador to Iraq, and the unifor=
med military. They look at the Iraqi population statistics, which show a Sh=
ia majority; a map of the country, which shows a long, hard-to-defend borde=
r with Iran; and the U.S. military order of battle, which shows overstretch=
ed armed forces, and conclude there cannot be a stable Iraqi government tha=
t isn't led by the majority Shia.

Even the Kurds have their doubts about the new rise in their standing with =
the neocons. Richard Galustian, a British security contractor in Iraq who w=
orks closely with the Kurdish authorities, says, "The political elevation o=
f the Kurds within Iraq will be very unpopular with other Iraqis, and will =
be treated with caution by the Kurdish leaders themselves. Many will be ske=
ptical of the ability of the U.S. administration to sustain and remain cons=
istent in any new relationships." If the Americans can turn on the Shia, th=
e reasoning goes, why couldn't they later turn on the Kurds?

President Bush's ability to impose order on this mess is not obvious, and h=
e doesn't have more than a couple of weeks to figure out a solution. With p=
hotographs of U.S. troops torturing and abusing Iraqi prisoners inflaming t=
he Arab world, U.S. casualties soaring, the June 30 date to turn over sover=
eignty looming and no exit strategy in sight, Bush's Iraq adventure has tur=
ned into a deadly mess that seems certain to make the U.S. more at risk fro=
m terrorism, not less. Bush brought this trouble on himself by buying into =
the neocons' interpretation of the dynamics of the Middle East, and into Ah=
med Chalabi's plans for Iraq -- maybe most disastrously by buying Chalabi's=
 assurances that a secular government dominated by Israel-friendly Shia was=
 possible. If Bush and the neocons wanted to know about Chalabi's real deal=
-making nature, the signs were there for them to read. But they didn't want=
 to know.

Chalabi appears to have recognized that the neocons, while ruthless, realis=
tic and effective in bureaucratic politics, were remarkably ignorant about =
the situation in Iraq, and willing to buy a fantasy of how the country's po=
litics worked. So he sold it to them.

Ahmed Chalabi's family, Shia Muslims from Kut in southern Iraq, has a tradi=
tion of working with occupation governments, starting with the regime of th=
e Ottoman Turks in 1638. Chalabi's father, Abdul Haydi Chalabi, was a membe=
r of the council of ministers of King Faisal II, whose short-lived Hashemit=
e dynasty was installed by the British in 1921. He was also president of th=
e Iraqi Senate created by the Hashemites.

The Hashemites are Sunni Muslim nobility, originally from a region in today=
's Saudi Arabia. While they lost their leading position in the Arabian peni=
nsula to the Al Sa'ud family, they were successfully installed as monarchs =
in both Jordan and Iraq with British support. The Jordanian Hashemites foun=
d a base of support in the local Bedouin tribes, and retain power to this d=
ay. The Iraqi Hashemite branch, though, was strongly opposed by the local S=
hia Muslim ayatollahs from the beginning. So in 1922 the Iraqi Shia religio=
us leaders in Najaf issued a fatwa, or decree, forbidding observant Shia fr=
om supporting the Hashemites. The Chalabi family wasn't deterred, though. T=
hey were among the few Shia to defy the fatwa and support the British-impos=
ed dynasty. They were rewarded with royal patronage, and wound up controlli=
ng the flour milling industry in Baghdad and Basra. The fatwa was finally l=
ifted in 1937, and by then the Chalabis had made a fortune.

Ahmed Chalabi was born in 1944. His family reached the peak of its wealth a=
nd influence during his childhood. In 1958, though, the Hashemite royals we=
re slaughtered during a military coup d'=E9tat, and the Chalabis fled, firs=
t to Jordan, then to Britain. Chalabi reportedly still has a British passpo=
rt.

The highly intelligent Chalabi enrolled at MIT at 16, where he earned a deg=
ree in mathematics. He then took a Ph.D. in math at the University of Chica=
go in 1969. (His thesis was "On the Jacobson Radical of a Group Algebra.") =
Despite these serious power-geek credentials, Chalabi has always been known=
 as charming, worldly, and a skilled networker. While at Chicago, Chalabi m=
et Albert Wohlstetter, an applied mathematician and one of the founders of =
the neoconservative movement. Wohlstetter introduced Chalabi to future move=
ment leaders like Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz.

After earning his doctorate, Chalabi returned to the Middle East and became=
 a math professor in Beirut. At the time Beirut was the peaceful financial =
center of the region, and in 1963 Chalabi's family had, along with some loc=
al partners, started Mebco, or the Middle East Banking Corp. It was run by =
Chalabi's brother Jawad. They had also established a Swiss financial compan=
y, Socofi, in 1954, as well as a Swiss subsidiary of MEBCO.

As Ahmed Chalabi has told the story, the Jordanian Hashemite crown prince, =
Hassan bin Talal, persuaded him to start the Petra Bank in Jordan in 1977. =
Chalabi's associates say the family had given the Jordanian Hashemites some=
 of the assassinated Iraqi Hashemites' overseas assets after the 1958 coup,=
 which no doubt helped smooth the way. The Chalabi family's other banking a=
nd financial companies provided further support.

Just after the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, Chalabi seems to have first e=
stablished his ties with the Iranian Shia theocracy. The new Islamic Republ=
ic turned on the shah's former allies in Israel with a vengeance. The Irani=
an regime set up a substantial intelligence and political apparatus in Leba=
non, among the oppressed local Shia.

One of the key Shia institutions in Lebanon was MEBCO in Beirut, which by t=
he 1980s had become a banker for the Shia Amal militia. Amal and Hezbollah =
were the principal private armies in Lebanon tied to the regime in Iran. Ch=
alabi was placing Petra depositors' money with MEBCO in those years; by the=
 time Petra collapsed in 1989, bank auditors found, the equivalent of $41 m=
illion in transactions with MEBCO were on the books. "All the Lebanese bank=
s were divided between political parties and factions," says Hassan Abdul A=
ziz, a former director at Petra Bank. "MEBCO bank was no different. All the=
 Shia were close to Iran emotionally or otherwise." A former CIA case offic=
er in Lebanon has a less sympathetic view. "This was basically funding a ci=
vil war, which meant murders, assassinations, and blowing up Israelis. MEBC=
O was putting their chips on every square." Iran and the Shite militias wer=
e not the only violent elements destabilizing Lebanon in the '70s and '80s,=
 of course. The bloody
 Israeli invasions of Lebanon, along with later punitive expeditions, infla=
med the Shia and other Lebanese.

But Lebanon was not the only venue for the Chalabi family's flexible and in=
novative approach to international finance. This may come as a surprise to =
some of Ahmed Chalabi's newer friends, but he helped finance Saddam Hussein=
's trade with Jordan during the 1980s. Specifically, Chalabi helped organiz=
e a special trading account for Iraq at the Jordanian central bank. Due to =
the problems created by the war with Iran, Saddam Hussein was unable to obt=
ain credit on normal terms. The special account with the Jordanians allowed=
 him to swap oil for necessary imports -- at least Saddam thought they were=
 necessary -- without going through the international credit system. As Has=
san Abdul Aziz explains, "Petra was the first to give letters of credit to =
Iraq, which they did for 23 months before Banco del Lavoro did in 1984. (Th=
e Banco del Lavoro scandal involved the provision of U.S. government commod=
ities loans to buy arms for Saddam Hussein.) By 1986 Jordan had $1 billion =
in annual trade with
 Iraq this way, and Petra Bank had 50% of the market." It makes the neocons=
' insistence that Saddam was behind Petra's fall -- and Chalabi's convictio=
n for embezzling and fraud -- even less credible.

After Petra was seized by the Jordanian authorities in August 1989, Chalabi=
 fled Jordan in the trunk of Crown Prince Hassan's car. Chalabi and his fam=
ily were still wealthy, despite the collapse of their banking empire, but h=
is career in Middle East banking was over. He was now a double exile, from =
Jordan as well as Iraq, comfortably ensconced in London. Just a year after =
his fall, though, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. When the subsequent Gulf W=
ar weakened but did not topple Saddam, a new possibility beckoned: the retu=
rn of the Chalabi family to power in Iraq.

Like many people in the Middle East, Ahmed Chalabi may have had the image o=
f the CIA as an all-knowing organization of worldwide puppet masters. If so=
, he soon learned otherwise. But in the early 1990s the CIA looked like a g=
ood prospect to sponsor an anti-Saddam Iraqi exile movement. At the same ti=
me, though, Chalabi was also looking to the Islamic regime in Iran for help=
.

Chalabi and some fellow exiles founded the Iraqi National Congress in 1992.=
 The INC was largely funded by the CIA, which provided part of its support =
through the Rendon Group, a Washington public relations company that also d=
oes international political work for the Department of Defense. The CIA's s=
upport for the INC paid for two radio stations, various propaganda operatio=
ns, and training camps in northern Iraq for Iraqi army defectors. (Northern=
 Iraq, controlled by various Kurdish factions and protected by U.S. air cov=
er, was a safe haven for Iraqi dissidents along with U.S. and allied intell=
igence operators.)

While Chalabi was perfectly willing to take the CIA's money, he quickly lea=
rned that it had become an ineffectual, self-obsessed bureaucracy. "He had =
absolute, total disdain for D.C.," says one of his former case officers in =
northern Iraq. "He looked at the Agency, and Rendon, and they flashed incom=
petence."

The case officer doesn't know precisely when Chalabi developed a deep relat=
ionship with the Iranian clerical regime, but it was in place when Chalabi =
was in northern Iraq in the early '90s. As the case officer recounts it, "H=
e was given safe houses and cars in northern Iraq, and was letting them be =
used by agents from the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security [Veva=
k], and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. At one point he tried to bro=
ker a meeting between the CIA and the Iranians."

The same officer says from time to time Chalabi would offer him "intelligen=
ce," which the officer would turn down. "I knew it wasn't any good, and he =
knew I knew. He took the refusal in good humor. We had a good relationship.=
 I like him."

The CIA's relationship with Chalabi came to an end after a failed offensive=
 in March 1995 against Saddam's forces by the small group of INC exiles and=
 the militia of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. The CIA had withdrawn the=
 support it had initially offered for the offensive, in what looks like a c=
lassic conflict between field officers and desk officers. Chalabi left nort=
hern Iraq the next month, and the CIA cut off its funding for the INC. It w=
as at this time that Chalabi turned his attention to the American neoconser=
vatives. The neocons were deeply disturbed by the Israeli government's "lan=
d for peace" negotiations with the Palestinians. The usefulness of the West=
 Bank for "defense in depth" was less important than it would have been fro=
m the '40s to the '70s, given the increase in Israel's relative technologic=
al and military advantage over the Arabs. However, the idea of giving up wh=
at Israel's right-wing Likud leaders and some of the neocons themselves bel=
ieved to be Israel's
 God-given lands on the West Bank of the Jordan River was anathema to them.=
 The solution to Israel's strategic dilemma, in their view, was to somehow =
change the Arab governments.

The neoconservative strategy for Israel was laid out in a 1996 paper called=
 "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm," issued by the Inst=
itute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies in Jerusalem (but writte=
n by Americans). The principal authors for the paper were Douglas Feith, th=
en a lawyer with the Washington and Jerusalem firm of Feith and Zell, and R=
ichard Perle, who until last year was the chairman of the Defense Policy Bo=
ard, an advisory committee for Defense Secretary Rumsfeld

In the section on Iraq, and the necessity of removing Saddam Hussein, there=
 was telltale "intelligence" from Chalabi and his old Jordanian Hashemite p=
atron, Prince Hassan: "The predominantly Shi'a population of southern Leban=
on has been tied for centuries to the Shi'a leadership in Najaf, Iraq, rath=
er than Iran. Were the Hashemites to control Iraq, they could use their inf=
luence over Najaf to help Israel wean the south Lebanese Shi'a away from Hi=
zbollah, Iran, and Syria. Shi'a retain strong ties to the Hashemites." Of c=
ourse the Shia with "strong ties to the Hashemites" was the family of Ahmed=
 Chalabi. Perle, Feith and other contributors to the "Clean Break" seemed n=
ot to recall the 15-year fatwa the clerics of Najaf proclaimed against the =
Iraqi Hashemites. Or the still more glaring fact, pointed out by Rashid Kha=
lidi in his new book "Resurrecting Empire," that Shiites are loyal only to =
descendants of the prophet Muhammad's son-in-law, Ali, and reject all other=
 lineages, including
 the Hashemites. As Khalidi caustically notes, "Perle and his colleagues we=
re here proposing the complete restructuring of a region whose history and =
religion their suggestions reveal they know hardly anything about." In shor=
t, the Iraqi component of the neocons "new strategy" was based on an ignora=
nt fantasy of prospective Shia support for ties with Israel.

For Ahmed Chalabi, the neoconservatives' support was the key to getting Was=
hington on his side. And Chalabi's leadership, in turn, was key to the neoc=
ons' support for the INC. Perle and Feith, along with future Bush administr=
ation officials Paul Wolfowitz and Donald Rumsfeld, signed the February 199=
8 "open letter" to President Clinton, in which they listed nine policy step=
s that were in the "vital national interest" of the United States. The firs=
t of these was "Recognize a provisional government of Iraq based on the pri=
nciples and leaders of the Iraqi National Congress (INC) that is representa=
tive of all the peoples of Iraq." In October 1998, under intense lobbying p=
ressure from the neocons, Congress passed, and President Clinton signed, th=
e "Iraqi Liberation Act," which provided money and U.S. legitimacy for Chal=
abi's INC, along with six other exile groups.

However, while Chalabi had proven himself as a lobbyist, if not a guerrilla=
 leader, he had a continuous uphill battle with U.S. intelligence agencies,=
 diplomats and the military, who never liked the INC's loose ways with the =
facts and taxpayer money. This meant that Chalabi had to constantly reinfor=
ce his countervailing support from the neoconservatives -- at least until t=
hey took power in the Bush administration in 2001, and squashed all dissona=
nt internal voices on Chalabi. That's when Chalabi and his allies stepped u=
p their planning for an American overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Behind the sc=
enes, Chalabi was also detailing for the neoconservatives and their Israeli=
 allies in the Likud party how the INC would take care of Israel.

One of the key promises he made concerned the revival of the Iraq-Israel oi=
l pipeline. The pipeline from the oilfields of Kirkuk and Mosul to Haifa ha=
d been built by the British in the late 1920s, and was one of the main targ=
ets of the Palestinian Arab revolt in 1936-38. The 8-inch line was finally =
cut after Israel's independence in 1948. The sections in Arab territory hav=
e mostly rusted away or been carted off for scrap. The Israeli section is u=
sed as an irrigation pipe. The fully surveyed right of way, though, remains=
. It could handle a modern, 42-inch pipe, sufficient to supply the Haifa re=
finery.

With Chalabi's encouragement, the Israeli Ministry of National Infrastructu=
re, which is responsible for oil pipelines, dusted off and updated plans fo=
r a new pipeline from Iraq. "The pipeline would be a dream," says Joseph Pa=
ritzky, the minister of national infrastructures. "We'd have an additional =
source of supply, and could even export some of the crude through Haifa. If=
 we could build it, a pipeline would give us stable transport prices. Compa=
re that to tankers; this year their price has almost tripled. We could also=
 avoid problems such as strikes in our ports, which I've had to deal with. =
But we'd need a treaty with Iraq, and a treaty with Jordan to build the pip=
eline."

With Chalabi in power in Iraq, either in front or behind the scenes, L. Mar=
c Zell confirms, the neocons were told there would be such a treaty with Ir=
aq. "He promised that. He promised a lot of things."

Just after the U.S. takeover of Iraq, but before the establishment of the G=
overning Council of which Chalabi would be finance chair, Paritzky was lobb=
ied by INC representatives in a meeting at the Dead Sea Marriott Hotel reso=
rt in Jordan. "We had a chitchat about it with the Iraqis, and with the Jor=
danians. But we couldn't go to the market and raise funds based on chitchat=
. We would have needed more to go on." Nevertheless, shortly afterward, on =
April 9, 2003, Paritzky announced a new technical appraisal of the pipeline=
.

The neocons in the Defense Department, such as Undersecretary of Defense fo=
r Policy Douglas Feith, were more optimistic about the pipeline project tha=
n Paritzky, who knew too much about the Middle East to be easily enthused b=
y Chalabi's promises. The DOD neocons sent a telegram directly to the Israe=
li Foreign Ministry, violating protocol in bypassing the State Department, =
expressing interest and support for the pipeline project. The State Departm=
ent had been told by the Jordanians that there would be no pipeline unless =
the Israelis reached a settlement with the Palestinians. The neocons didn't=
 want to hear that. "If the government agreed to a pipeline without a Pales=
tinian settlement," says a Jordanian official, "the monarchy would fall."

In the meantime, having used the neocons to get himself on the Governing Co=
uncil, Chalabi appointed friends and relatives to key positions in the gove=
rnment. His nephew Salem (Sam) Chalabi, a lawyer, did much of the drafting =
of the interim constitution. Another nephew, Ali Allawi, was made minister =
of trade, with responsibility over foreign trade and investment in Iraq (he=
 was later also named defense minister). Other Chalabi nominees went into t=
he Central Bank, the Finance Ministry and the Oil Ministry.

But Chalabi had his eye on the bigger picture. The wealthy exile had visite=
d Tehran before the war, in August 2002 and January 2003. On those trips he=
 met with senior Iranian officials, and with Mohammed Bakr Al-Hakim, the le=
ader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the main Sh=
ia opposition group. The neoconservatives chose to overlook these visits to=
 a member of the "Axis of Evil." It could be argued that there was no other=
 way to liaise with Iraqi Shia leaders.

Then in December 2003, Chalabi went to Tehran to meet with Hasan Rohani, th=
e head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. At that meeting, Chalab=
i said, "The role of the Islamic Republic of Iran in supporting and guiding=
 the opposition in their struggles against Saddam's regime in the past, and=
 its assistance toward the establishment of security and stability in Iraq =
at present, are regarded highly by the people of Iraq."

U.S. intelligence agencies, along with leading neocons, began to look again=
 at just who Chalabi's real friends might be, especially since Iranian inte=
lligence agents from his old friends at Vevak were known to be active in Ir=
aq. Also, the Israelis began to notice that Chalabi's old promises had been=
 forgotten.

"I just got the bid papers for a $145 million highway project that were put=
 out by the Iraqis, and they had the Israeli boycott language in them," an =
Israeli in Baghdad told me in March. "Chalabi promised the boycott would be=
 over."

Ali Allawi, the Chalabi nephew in charge of the Ministry of Trade, and now =
also the minister of defense, calls trade with Israel "a non-starter. We ar=
en't plugged into that network, and as far as I'm concerned they sell thing=
s we don't need. As for the boycott. I don't care. What's the matter with i=
t? The U.S. boycotts Cuba, and nobody says anything about it.

"Our future is more to the east, with Iran, and to the south, with the Gulf=
 states. Iran has natural geographic ties to Iraq. I'm not interested in wh=
at those neoconservatives at the (Coalition Provisional Authority) have to =
say about Iran. We don't have sufficient port capacity, for example. We sho=
uld use the Iranian ports and roads. Iraq should have fundamental economic =
and trade relations with Iran, and Turkey, as long as they reciprocate, and=
 I think they will." He dismissed the Mosul-Haifa pipeline with a wave of h=
is hand.

Nabil Al Moussa, the deputy minister of planning for the Oil Ministry, conf=
irmed Allawi's position. Asked whether the ministry had any plans for rebui=
lding the pipeline to Israel, his previous professional courtesy went out t=
he window. "Absolutely not, and never! Don't ever ask us if we will sell oi=
l to Israel, because we never will!"

Told of Allawi's and Al Moussa's reaction, Joseph Paritzky was philosophica=
l, and a little contemptuous of his would-be neocon benefactors. "How naive=
 can these Americans be? What, they thought they had a deal? Didn't they no=
tice they were in the Middle East?" A neocon's reaction to Paritzky was cha=
racteristic: "He's a populist asshole who should have kept his mouth shut."=
 But Paritzky obviously understood Middle Eastern politics far better than =
the neocons.

While the neocons felt they could ignore negative reports on Chalabi from t=
he CIA, the State Department and other bureaucratic enemies, they have a ha=
rder time dismissing what comrades like Marc Zell have to say. Nevertheless=
, for the time being, many are sticking to the Bush strategy of staying on =
message and never admitting to mistakes. For example, last week, Michael Le=
deen, a leading neocon at the American Enterprise Institute, complained in =
the National Review Online about "the cascade of anti-Chalabi leaks from hi=
s many mortal enemies at the Department of State and the Central Intelligen=
ce Agency." Changing the message is painful. As one neocon says: "The worst=
 part of all this [Chalabi's betrayal] is that it will be embarrassing to m=
y friends in the Pentagon."

Defense minister Allawi doubts that the neocons will be able to prevail in =
their plan to replace Shia dominance in the new Iraq with the Sunni-Kurdish=
 coalition. "This is the last stand of the neocons, I think. The U.S. does =
have a new policy, which is to find a way to leave. That plan isn't the way=
 to do it. I hear Condi Rice's office opposes the idea, and so does Ambassa=
dor Negroponte."

"We really don't have any choice," says a former intelligence officer and W=
est Pointer in Iraq. "We have to make a deal, though we probably don't have=
 to deal with Iran directly. We can make it through the Shia clergy in Iraq=
."

Allawi dismisses Feith and the neocons and what he calls "their grandiose s=
chemes," but adds, "The neocons still have some influence, partly because t=
hey have good ties with the Kurds. And Sharon is still the 840-pound gorill=
a for U.S. policy."

Clearly the neocons are now in the process of retreating and regrouping. Th=
e consensus they'd forged among themselves on Iraq policy has dissolved. Th=
e massive plans for the democratization of the Middle East are heading for =
the recycling bin. Meanwhile, Chalabi's hopes for playing a leadership role=
 in Iraq appear to be gone, although the crafty businessman's ability to re=
surrect himself from the dead should not be underestimated. It should also =
be noted that Chalabi family members continue to wield power in Iraq, and w=
ill likely continue to. For example, defense minister Allawi insists that h=
e is not "in my uncle's entourage. Instead I travel alongside him." The rem=
ark can be interpreted to mean that he doesn't take orders from his uncle, =
and yet they are still close. Allawi has had a rather more conventional bus=
iness career than that of his uncle, which has helped his political positio=
n in Iraq. While an early investor in Petra Bank, he soon parted company wi=
th his uncle and the
 other partners. He went on to become a successful and respectable portfoli=
o manager in London before returning to Iraq last year.

In the end, despite the neocons' best hopes, Iran has emerged as crucial to=
 the administration's desire for a political settlement in Iraq. Government=
s in the neighboring countries have taken notice of the neocons' big blunde=
r. "The Iranians have proven to be absolutely brilliant in all of this," sa=
ys a well-connected Jordanian. "They're showing that they're going to be th=
e ones to win this one, and they'll do it with American money and lives."

For his part, Allawi praises what he sees as the U.S. military's new realis=
m about the need for what he calls "a cold peace" with Iran. "There is no w=
ay to have stability in Iraq without Iran," he insists. "The U.S. military =
has been very correct in its contact with Iran at the border, and has never=
 violated the unwritten agreement."

The neocons' Iraq triumph of last year has turned to ashes. Their Likud all=
ies in Israel are bitterly split over Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans f=
or the settlements in the territories. They have a coldly hostile Iraqi gov=
ernment coming in the near future. The clerical regime they loathe in Iran =
has dramatically improved its strategic position. Some of them must be ruei=
ng the day they met Ahmed Chalabi, who told them the fairy tales they wante=
d to hear.


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About the writer
John Dizard is a columnist for the Financial Times.

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