Tom Walker wrote: >It may be helpful to non-statisticians to point out that the bell curve is not a theory, a fact or a physical law. It is an observed regularity that occurs often when looking at large numbers of cases....<
I don't think that the validity of the bell curve is that important to the discussion of Hubbert's peak. His basic point -- or rather, that of his followers -- is the same as that of David Ricardo & Thomas Malthus: long-term diminishing returns in the supplies of natural resources leads to increasing misery and/or conflict. Of course, as with Ricardo & Malths, that ignores such matters as technical change (improvements in the efficiency of oil use, etc.) ------------------------ Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
