Devine, James wrote:
By the way, in the article posted to pen-l, Mike Davis didn't say that we were running
into the Malthus/Ricardo stationary state driven by the absolute scarcity of oil (it's
running out! it's running out! we went over H's peak!). Rather, he made it clear that
he _assumed_ this and then derived conclusions from it. He's by no means an oil expert
and he knows it.
the big problem is that because no-one can predict the future, it's very easy for superficial observers to confuse a short-term shortage of oil with a long-term running-out of oil (even though real oil prices are lower now than they were during previous oil crises).
Why is so hard to predict the future? At the current rate, there will be
no more blue-fin tuna left in a decade or so due to industrial fishing
techniques and worldwide demand. Most scientists view the Ogallala
Aquifer, which supplies most of the fresh water in the USA, as a source
that will dry up in 35 years or so. The real question for us is now
whether these resources are exhaustible, but whether the capitalist
system can husband them for future generations.
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