Northern Ireland and Scotland only declared today partly for religious
reasons. Excluding the former where the parties are so different, the
aggregate vote for the rest of the UK broadly were in % with change
from 4 years ago

27  - 9  Conservatives
23  -5.4 Labour
16  + 9 UK Independence Party
15  + 2 Liberal Democrats

 6 Greens
 5 British National Party (fascist)
1.5 Respect - George Galloway, anti Iraq war coalition.

Vote markedly up associated with much tactical voting for smaller
protest parties. Across the EU little enthusiasm for parties
supporting EU and strong oppositional votes for parties intuitively
against it. UKIP may have drawn votes also from racists opposed to
immigration. It now presents a big problem for the Conservatives who
will have illogically in terms of the interests of capitalism, to move
even further against Europe and for Blair's Labour party which will
have a big problem with a referendum on the new EU constitution, which
it has already had to concede.

Iraq has badly damaged Blair's credibility, and this was more clearly
seen without the EU distraction, in the local votes counted on
Thursday. This may have helped the Liberal Democrats a bit. But the
modest rise for them and the weak showing for Galloway's Respect shows
that opposition to the Iraq war is not the result of a deeply
engrained opposition to imperialist interventions, merely opposition
to this one.

About the dilemmas over Europe for the conventional political parties
of capitalism to paraphrase Lenin, one might say, the masses know the
benefits of large markets and large states, but they have little
enthusiasm for them. And whereas the national bourgeoisie in the 19th
century poured money into chauvinist building of the nation state, the
finance capitalist companies of the 21st century have no interest for
example in welding European solidarity against the USA. Even though
George Bush's neo-Cons do not really represent the best interests of
capitalism, they can be discarded in other ways, than by drumming up
too severe a polarisation between Europe and the USA.

So Europe has won peace but it is finding that democracy is not the
shining ideal it was when held up against communist dicatorship. It is
about many pragmatic alliances, and being able to achieve things only
when potential opponents are bored or diverted by something else. Not
a bad model for world unity if gradually it requires the wishes and
interests of ordinary working people to be appeased. But that leaves
it more likely to be vulnerable to populist or fascist rebellions than
to glorious and coordinated proletarian revolution.

Chris Burford
London

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