Re: Chechnya and capitalism

[Chris Doss]

 

 

However I am really arguing that if we try to study history
concretely, as well as with a flaming heart, we have to interpret
these national questions not only from the point of view of the
interests of the international unity of working people, but also from
the point of view of economic viability of political structures. What
is the Russian Federation's economic plan for the recovery of the
entire North Caucusus?
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To stabilize the situation by flooding it with money, basically. (Federal subsidies to Dagestan increased over 200% in the year following the attacks.) I think this op-ed piece gives a good idea of Kremlin thinking.

 

Chechnya must look ahead
By Robert Bruce Ware

In the short term, nothing will be settled by Sunday’s constitutional referendum in Chechnya.

Many Chechens have endorsed the constitution, whether or not they agree with its particulars, simply because they are exhausted by the conflict and yearn for stability on almost any terms. Less conciliatory members of Chechen society will continue to engage federal troops in sporadic fights, and militants will still resort to terrorist acts to demonstrate they have not been sidelined.

Indeed, as more people gradually return to Chechnya, terrorist acts will become easier to engineer and more deadly in their execution. Western critics will find ample reason to claim that the referendum was illegitimate or inconclusive. Another barrage of anti-Russian rhetoric will further undercut Russian moderates, renew the determination of Russian hardliners and limit opportunities for genuinely constructive Western influence.

Critics, however, will be missing the crucial point.

The short-term consequences of the referendum are relatively insignificant. Over the next five to 10 years, a new Chechen social order and new elites will slowly form around economic shifts that will develop following the entrenchment of the new administration and the consequent expansion of federal subsidies for the republic.

Progressively, this new order will push Chechen radicals to the side and promote pragmatic and moderate elements.

 

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=36306

 

BTW, the main longterm threat to Russia's territorial integrity is probably not Chechen militants, since not many people in Chechnya and almost nobody outside Chechnya support them, but this:

 

Study: Half of Economy in 6 Regions

By Mikhail Balyasny
Special to The Moscow Times

The economy may have grown every year since the 1998 financial crisis, but so has the gap between rich and poor regions, according to a new study. Despite having less than 10 percent of the population, the two wealthiest regions in Russia -- oil-rich Tyumen in Western Siberia and the city of Moscow -- now account for nearly a third of gross domestic product, up from less than a fourth at the start of 1999, according to a research report by Aton investment bank. "Those regions that were poor remain poor, and those that were rich remain rich," said Peter Westin, the report's author and Aton's chief economist. Topping Aton's per capita output table at $8,981 per year is Tyumen (including Khanty-Mansiisk), followed by Moscow ($6,603), billionaire Roman Abramovich's fiefdom Chukotka ($5,093), diamond-rich Sakha ($4,568) and gold-filled Magadan ($3,245). The top six regions by output -- Moscow, Tyumen, St. Petersburg, Sverdlovsk, Tatarstan and Samara -- account for half of the overall economy, according to Aton.

 

http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/06/29/041.html

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