this is such crap. Note that the "closer than the official forecast 75% of the time" number shows up twice in different contexts. Note also that you would do better than the official forecast 50% of the time by simply flipping a coin, so 75% seems a pretty low bar (if your playing a coin flipping game, heads versus tails, the side that's ahead after three flips will be the eventual winner 75% of the time). And finally note that problems like forecasting chip sales would have to be judged against a very complicated and asymmetric loss function; underestimates are much less harmful than overestimates.
Hanson put out a press release last year saying that the "revised" Policy Analysis Market would be up and trading by March 2004. I emailed him offering to bet $500 that it wouldn't, but I never got a reply. dd -----Original Message----- From: PEN-L list [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Tom Walker Sent: 14 July 2004 23:43 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: The End Of Management? I love it! Total Information Awareness meets ParEcon. Robin Hanson, may I introduce you to Robin Hahnel... Charles Brown wrote, > TIME.com: The End Of Management? -- Jul. 12, 2004 > http://www.time.com/time/insidebiz/article/0,9171,1101040712-660965,00.html Tom Walker 604 255 4812
