Don't campaigns often pay $5 or $10 per vote?
On Sat, Jul 24, 2004 at 03:10:08PM -0400, Robert Naiman wrote: > Why do these numbers represent "fizzle"? Let say that 9% of the electorate > has seen the film, as in the sample. Let's say 18% of those who've seen the > film are more likely to vote against Bush as a result, as reported in the > sample. Multiplying, we find that 1.6% of the electorate are more likely to > vote against Bush, as a result of seeing the film. > > Now, if you're an anti-Bush campaign consultant, and you have an > opportunity for an ad buy that has the potential to move 1.6% of the > electorate against Bush, how much would you be willing to pay for that? > > And that doesn't count the people who have not yet seen the film but will > do so before the election, who one would expect would be less committedly > anti-Bush then people who saw the movie right away. > > Did this reporter do the math? > > - Robert Naiman > > > > At 08:23 AM 7/23/2004 -0700, you wrote: > >________________________________ > > > >http://www.latimes.com/la-et-horn23jul23,1,1478123.story > ><http://www.latimes.com/la-et-horn23jul23,1,1478123.story> > > > >THE [Los Angeles] TIMES POLL > > > > > >Public Keeping Its Cool Over Election Effect of 'Fahrenheit' > > > >By John Horn > >Times Staff Writer > > > >July 23, 2004 > > > >Despite its continuing success with the box-office electorate, "Fahrenheit > >9/11," Michael Moore's sharply satirical attack on President Bush and his > >administration, appears to be wielding less influence among potential > >voters than the filmmaker and his supporters might have hoped, a Los > >Angeles Times Poll has found. > > > >The survey found that "Fahrenheit" is drawing an overwhelmingly Democratic > >audience, and of the Republicans who have ventured to see it, few appear > >to be swayed. > > > >One of those polled, 27- year-old Thomas Winney, a Republican construction > >worker who saw the movie in Washington, Mo., said it had no effect on how > >he views the election. "It didn't change my mind at all," Winney said, > >noting that he was and remains a Bush supporter. "Kerry says one thing one > >time, and another thing the next time." > > > >Of the 1,529 registered voters surveyed in the poll, conducted nationwide > >July 17-21, 9% had seen Moore's film, which has taken in more than $97 > >million since it opened last month and established itself as the > >highest-grossing feature-length documentary ever. Of those who have seen > >the movie, 78% identified themselves as Democrats, 9% as independents and > >6% as Republicans. > > > >Predictably, the vast majority of those who had seen the film - 92% - said > >they were planning to vote for Sen. John F. Kerry and Sen. John Edwards > >for president. Only 3% planned to vote for Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. > > > >Seventy-nine percent of those who had seen "Fahrenheit" said the film > >would not change their November votes; 18% said it made them more likely > >to vote against Bush; and 3% said it bolstered their resolve to vote for him. > > > >Because the "Fahrenheit" questions were asked only of registered voters, > >it was not possible to determine whether the film was prompting people to > >sign up to vote for the first time. > > > >Moore closes the film with the message "Do something." At a > >celebrity-studded Beverly Hills screening of the film last month, he said: > >"I hope this country will be back in our hands in a very short period of > >time." He could not be reached for comment by press time Thursday. > > > >Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the > >Press, said he was not surprised that the film was appealing to a narrow > >political segment and added that it didn't necessarily need to win over > >GOP voters in order to have an effect on the election. > > > >"The important role [movies like this] play is that they are energizers > >for political points of view," Kohut said. "Rush Limbaugh is important not > >because he converts people - he can't convert anyone. But he gets people > >riled up." > > > >Catherine Krause, a 20-year-old student in Houston, is among the choir to > >whom Moore is preaching. Even though she identified herself as a > >Republican, Krause said she went into "Fahrenheit" intending to vote > >against Bush - and came out with the same opinion. > > > >"I'm not a fan of the president," Krause, one of the Times Poll > >respondents, said in an interview Thursday. "If Michael Moore had done the > >film more truthfully, I would have been more impressed with it. But I > >agree with the main premise." > > > >Overall, the Times Poll found that audience members had mixed feelings > >about the accuracy of Moore's brand of documentary filmmaking. Nine > >percent found it "somewhat" or "completely" inaccurate. But despite > >attacks from conservative critics, most others granted it at least some > >credibility, with 31% calling it "completely accurate" and 58% calling it > >"somewhat accurate." The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 > >percentage points. > > > >... > > > >Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
