NY Times, August 8, 2004 Venezuela's Opposition Loses Momentum By JUAN FORERO
CARACAS, Venezuela, Aug. 6 - Pompeyo Márquez, with his shaggy mustache, tuft of white hair and craggy voice, is the new face of Venezuela's opposition movement, and therein may lie the problem.
After the opposition's failed coup attempt against President Hugo Chávez and its four economically devastating strikes, the old dinosaurs of the two political parties that plundered the country for decades and are now in opposition have lost their influence.
The idea now is to have someone with a steady hand and voice - as well as impeccable credentials - reaching Venezuelans as the opposition tries to gain momentum to oust Mr. Chávez, a fiery leftist who has turned Venezuelan political tradition upside down with his policies, in a recall referendum on Aug. 15.
So Mr. Márquez, a former Communist guerrilla and political prisoner, is more often than not the opposition's man on the stump these days.
"People ask, 'After Chávez, then what?' and I say, 'After Chávez we will have the rule of law, respect for institutions and unity,' " Mr. Márquez, microphone in hand, said to wild applause on a recent night before 300 people packed into a restaurant outside Caracas. "We are the future. Chávez just talks about the federalist wars of the past."
But even Mr. Márquez, who until recent months had rarely shared the dais with the country's top opposition leaders, admits his time has passed. He is 82 years old. He took part in his first strike in 1936. His standard speech includes references to his experiences in the post-Stalinist Soviet Union.
He may be respected for his honesty and tenacity. But political analysts say that having him serve as one of a handful of spokesmen for the coalition of disparate parties, unions and business executives opposed to Mr. Chávez is another sign of a fractured, stumbling movement that has lacked adroit leadership and a coherent message.
In Mr. Chávez, the opposition faces a messianic figure who is a formidable campaigner, drips charisma and now benefits from sky-high oil prices that are giving his government billions of dollars for popular social programs that solidify his base of support.
But of Mr. Márquez, Riordan Roett, director of Latin American studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said: "Give me a break - there's no charisma there. In the 40's and 50's, an 82-year-old figure might have been O.K. But Chávez is not 82. He's doing well, he's bouncy. He's got high oil prices. They need someone to go up against him."
Indeed, with their last-gasp chance to unseat Mr. Chávez just a week away, the opposition appears to be unable to gain traction.
"I don't feel that the opposition has connected with the hopes of the people," said Jorge Botti, a businessman and opposition leader. "They may believe there is something better than Chávez, but they have not seen an option."
In recent weeks, some polls have indicated that Mr. Chávez will squeak out a victory in the recall. A victory would probably smash opponents who, before they came up with this campaign, had also tried all manner of illegal means to get rid of him.
The polls - by the opposition and by the government - are often too close to call.
Undecided voters, the so-called ni-nis, or neither-nors, who have no affinity for either side, are the wild cards both sides want to capture.
But what is clear is that Mr. Chávez, who just a few months ago was behind in polls by wide margins, has shot up in popularity and is now within reach of winning.
"The situation for Chávez has no doubt improved, and remember, Chávez as a candidate, the worker of a campaign, is extraordinarily good," said Alfredo Torres, a pollster who works for an anti-Chávez political party. "The opposition has been a disaster in terms of creating more voters against Chávez."
full: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/08/international/americas/08venez.html
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