<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/03/opinion/03krugman.html?ex=1362200400&en=b0663b802199e51d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
>
http://tinyurl.com/33dlyu
Deliverance or Diversion?
By PAUL KRUGMAN
After their victory in the 2006 Congressional elections, it seemed a
given that Democrats would try to make this year’s presidential
campaign another referendum on Republican policies. After all, the
public appears fed up not just with President Bush, but with his
party. For example, a recent poll by the Pew Research Center shows
Democrats are preferred on every issue except terrorism. They even
have a 10-point advantage on “morality.”
Add to this the fact that perceptions about the economy are worsening
week by week, and one might have expected the central theme of the
Democratic campaign to be “throw the bums out.”
But a funny thing happened on the way to the 2008 election.
Unless Hillary Clinton wins big on Tuesday, Barack Obama will be the
Democratic nominee. And he’s not at all the kind of candidate one
might have expected to emerge out of the backlash against Republican
governance.
Now, nobody would mistake Mr. Obama for a Republican — although
contrary to claims by both supporters and opponents, his voting record
places him, with Senator Clinton, more or less in the center of the
Democratic Party, rather than in its progressive wing.
But Mr. Obama, instead of emphasizing the harm done by the other
party’s rule, likes to blame both sides for our sorry political state.
And in his speeches he promises not a rejection of Republicanism but
an era of postpartisan unity.
That — along with his adoption of conservative talking points on the
crucial issue of health care — is why Mr. Obama’s rise has caused such
division among progressive activists, the very people one might have
expected to be unified and energized by the prospect of finally ending
the long era of Republican political dominance.
Some progressives are appalled by the direction their party seems to
have taken: they wanted another F.D.R., yet feel that they’re getting
an oratorically upgraded version of Michael Bloomberg instead.
Others, however, insist that Mr. Obama’s message of hope and his
personal charisma will yield an overwhelming electoral victory, and
that he will implement a dramatically progressive agenda.
The trouble is that faith in Mr. Obama’s transformational ability
rests on surprisingly little evidence.
Mr. Obama’s ability to attract wildly enthusiastic crowds to rallies
is a good omen for the general election; so is his ability to raise
large sums. But neither necessarily points to a landslide victory.
Polling numbers aren’t much help: for now, at least, you can find
polls telling you anything you want to hear, from the CBS News/New
York Times poll giving Mr. Obama a 12-point national advantage over
John McCain to the Mason-Dixon poll showing Mr. McCain winning Florida
by 10 points.
What we do know is that Mr. Obama has never faced a serious Republican
opponent — and that he has not yet faced the hostile media treatment
doled out to every Democratic presidential candidate since 1988.
Yes, I know that both the Obama campaign and many reporters deny that
he has received more favorable treatment than Hillary Clinton. But
they’re kidding, right? Dana Milbank, the Washington Post national
political reporter, told the truth back in December: “The press will
savage her no matter what ... they really have the knives out for her,
there’s no question about it ... Obama gets significantly better
coverage.”
If Mr. Obama secures the nomination, the honeymoon will be over as he
faces an opponent whom much of the press loves as much as it hates
Mrs. Clinton. If Mrs. Clinton can do nothing right, Mr. McCain can do
nothing wrong — even when he panders outrageously, he’s forgiven
because he looks uncomfortable doing it. Honest.
Bob Somerby of the media-criticism site dailyhowler.com predicts that
Mr. Obama will be “Dukakised”: “treated as an alien, unsettling
presence.” That sounds all too plausible.
If Mr. Obama does make it to the White House, will he actually deliver
the transformational politics he promises? Like the faith that he can
win an overwhelming electoral victory, the faith that he can overcome
bitter conservative opposition to progressive legislation rests on
very little evidence — one productive year in the Illinois State
Senate, after the Democrats swept the state, and not much else.
And some Illinois legislators apparently feel that even there Mr.
Obama got a bit more glory than he deserved. “No one wants to carry
the ball 99 yards all the way to the one-yard line, and then give it
to the halfback who gets all the credit,” one state senator complained
to a local journalist.
All in all, the Democrats are in a place few expected a year ago. The
2008 campaign, it seems, will be waged on the basis of personality,
not political philosophy. If the magic works, all will be forgiven.
But if it doesn’t, the recriminations could tear the party apart.
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