In support of my comments yesterday on peak oil, I would like to quote a
section
of an article that appeared in today's Globe and Mail, Report on
Business under
the title "Why some reserves are going untapped."
"With rising demand, plus declining production from existing
fields, the industry
needs to add at least 4.5 million barrels a day of new supply each year.
But relying on major projects won't meet that target. In the
current year, the
UBS analysts estimate new supply sources will produce 4.4 million
barrels a day,
but that figure drops to 2.9 million in 2009 and a paltry 1.7 million in
2010.
That suggests prices could ease this year, as new additions in
Saudi Arabia and
the former Soviet Union provide a cushion in the face of demand weakened
by the
global economic slowdown.
Thereafter, the market will tighten again as new production is
unable to keep up
with demand growth."
<snip>
"Canada is well represented in the UBS list, with some two-dozen
oil sands
projects forecast to add 2.3 million barrels a day by 2016."
Paul Phillips
--
Paul Phillips Professor Emertus, Economics University of Manitoba Home
and Office: 3806 - 36A st., Vernon BC, Canada. ViT 6E9 tel: 1 (250)
558-0830 email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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