Perelman, Michael wrote: > Very good work, Jim. I thought that employment was supposed to be a > lagging indicator. > > Also, if the quality of employment were taken into account, the picture > would be grimmer.
The decline of job quality is part of the trend (since the 1970s or so), not the cycle. My concern was the cycle, specifically Charles Brown's question about whether we are having a recession or not. My conclusion was that we may not be (by perhaps a 1% chance) by bourgeois (GDP) standards, but by worker's standards we are definitely in one. (Yeah, I know that trend & cycle can't be separated totally. But it's the amplitude of cycles that may have increased in the trend -- covered up, perhaps, by the Fed blowing bubbles -- not the frequency. I was pretty clear that my measure of recessions did not measure amplitude -- just like the NBER and journalistic measures.) -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
