Julios post on the rise in class consciousness in America is spot-on. U.S.
unions are growing, adding roughly 310,000 new members in 2007 over 2006. The
U.S. public resisted the White Houses drive to privatize Social Security. Both
push-backs took place during the WOT. Thats no small feat.
Seth
Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2008 11:18:53 -0400
From: "Julio Huato" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [Pen-l] Why Obama will likely lose to McCain
To: [email protected]
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<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
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Louis gets into the horse-race and deems Obama likely to lose to McCain.
> I would agree with everything that Bob Herbert is saying,
> but would add that he is wrong to think that Obama is
> somehow holding back on some kind of message that
> will stir working people and the poor into electoral action.
> Obama, like the Democrats who preceded him in recent
> elections (Carter, Mondale, Clinton, Gore, Kerry) are not
> really Democrats--at least in the way that the party is
> understood in the pages of the Nation Magazine or among
> good liberals like Bob Herbert. They are *Eisenhower
> Republicans*.
Aside from the wishful thinking lodged in Louis' exercise, the remarks he
cites and those he makes show (to borrow a cliche) how "out of touch" people --
even those portending to be in the look out -- can get about what's really
going on in the U.S. today.
Frankly, very little of what Louis says makes any sense. He's peeing at the
wrong tree. Only the surface of all this is about Obama. It's mostly about a
shift in the political consciousness of the people in the U.S. (and the rest of
the world), a shift that 9/11 and the occupation of Iraq only catalyzed. The
sources of this shift are yet to be explored seriously. Partially, they are
demographic (generational or immigration-driven). But only partially.
For anyone with eyes to see (not too confused by ideological
preconceptions), this is a serious shift with tremendous potential for
progress. Of course, it has limits. It is stained by original sins, carries
heavy historical burdens, the political vehicles available are seriously
compromised, etc. That happens all the time.
But the shift is still ongoing, being played at its early stages. If
history is any guide, a shift this serious won't exhaust itself until
some serious reforms are carried out (meeting or betraying
expectations or some combination thereof) or until the various
movements stemming from it suffer a series of decisive, catastrophic defeats.
So, basically, the popular opposition to the war, the outrage among African
Americans for the official response to Katrina, the wave of demonstrations for
full rights to immigrant workers, *and* the electoral insurrection Obama is
leading are parts of one and the same process. The subject of this process is
none other than the U.S. working class, gradually acquiring in a clearer
awareness of self. At this point, the expression of this shift is *Obama* --
much more than Hillary Clinton. (Effectively, McKinney and Nader are non
quantities.)
But, based on what we know now about Obama, the Democrats, U.S. society,
etc., with what certainty can we anticipate that an Obama victory will squander
the progressive potential seeded in this shift?
IMO, with as much certainty as we have to predict the opposite
outcome. As for McCain, if xenophobia, red-baiting, Cold War
anti-Marxist propaganda is all he and his party have to stop Obama, then we
don't need Herbert (or Louis) to tell us how likely it is for the Republicans
to win. Accidents can't be excluded, but if the main trend is to assert itself
the Republicans are not in a good position.
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