Awhile back, I asked what the next bubble would be in the U.S., after the tech stock bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s. It's still possible that it will be in "green energy," as suggested in a HARPER'S article. But it's also possible that we're seeing it right now in the speculative craziness surrounding the price of oil and the related speculation on the US$. (People are betting that the former will go up and the latter will go down.)
I've heard people on the news talk as if the price of oil will never ever go down again in a significant way. That kind of talk is bubble-speak. This bubble is of course encouraged by the Fed's stimulation of the U.S. economy in order to handle the wreckage left over from the previous bubble. Cheap funds have to be invested somewhere and where better than a product that' s so expensive these days? Of course, it's also based on the very inelastic nature of the supply in the short run: like tulips, oil is ripe for speculation. That kind of supply also encourages rapid price collapses, especially if there's a world-wide recession. BTW, this does not say anything at all about the "peak oil" hypothesis. That hypothesis would apply in the long run, not in the short run. It would be as much of a mistake to conclude from the current speculation that the peak oil hypothesis is wrong as to conclude that it is right from the same data. Predicting the future based on the present is not a simple task. -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
