On May 27, 2008, at 9:18 PM, raghu wrote:
I understand the risk v. uncertainty intuitively but is it even possible to give a coherent definition? Are these two categories as sharp as they appear to be?
Keynes, "The General Theory of Employment" (journal article, not the book):
By 'uncertain' knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty; nor is the prospect of a victory bond being drawn.... Even the weather is only moderately uncertain. The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence, or the obsolescence of a new invention, or the position of private wealth-owners in the social system in 1970. About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know
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