raghu wrote: > It seems to me there is only one way to differentiate measurable risk > from uncertainty: by asking the question "is it useful to think of a > given variable in terms of probability?". That, of course, is > subjective and not sharp at all.
Our perception of the distinction between risk and uncertainty is subjective, but that does not mean that the distinction does not exist in the objective world that exists outside of our perception of it. That is, some real-world phenomena (like fair coin-flipping) are subject to probability but others (the number of times anyone within a mile radius of this location will flip a coin during the next 24 hours) is not. (The latter cannot be judged from historical evidence, since the "parameters" of the situation keep on changing.) Alas, as mere mortals, we have a hard time knowing and deciding which phenomena belong in which category. This is made harder by the fact that there are mixed situations, combining risk with uncertainty. BTW, even though he seems quite arrogant, Nassim Nicholas Taleb has interesting things to say about the distinction between risk and uncertainty. -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
