On Sat, 2008-05-31 at 20:58 -0700, Michael Perelman wrote: > Speculation cannot affect prices very much. > > Fear about future troubles in oil producing countries add to > the price of oil. > > How can these two ideas be reconciled?
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm?periodType=Annual&startYear=2005&startMonth=1&endYear=2009&endMonth=12&tableNumber=6 World oil production has been flat for the past three years (2005: 84.65 2006: 84.60 2007: 84.60 millions barrel per day) while consumption is going up (2005: 83.65 2006: 84.62 2007:85.40), so higher prices are needed to destroy consumption of oil. Current oil prices don't seem high enough to really curb consumption so prices have nowhere to go except up, no one seem to believe that supply will go up significantly any more. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig5.gif Disclaimer: I'm long oil and I don't own a car. Laurent http://guerby.org/blog/ _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
