Marvin Gandall wrote: > I'd also like to hear more, because my impression is that few economists are > anticipating a recession - even a growth recession - in China despite a > marked decline in exports. Some are predicting a slight slowdown in line > with state policy, and others have ratcheted up their forecasts. The IMF > recently upped its projections to close to 10% growth this year and next. Of > course, if the US and world economy really go into the tank, all bets are > off, but you seem to be assuming a recession on current trends, for which > you may have sound reasons, but which defies the consensus outlook.
The consensus may turn out to be right, but remember that just a few months ago, the consensus was that the US housing boom was not a bubble and there would be no collapse there. Yes, I do predict (to the extent that _anything_ can be predicted) that the US recession is going to be big and long (an "L" as PK says). Since the US is the consumer of last resort these days... Now if a President Obama launches a big effort to rebuild and build infrastructure and the like, my prediction may be short-circuited. -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
