On Oct 23, 2008, at 2:28 PM, Max Sawicky wrote:

I happen to be noodling now with that issue in re: cost-benefit analysis. My intuition is that over-confidence is ubiquitous in both the public and private sectors because it is a rational sort of 'irrationality.'

If it weren't for "over"-confidence, we might never do anything. See, for example, the evidence that depressed people have a more rational evaluation of their prospects than the un-depressed, which is one reason they have a hard time getting out of bed.

Doug
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