> From: "Chris Burford" >> is week's New Scientist (UK) has an article on the increased complexity >> and unpredictability of the global economy entitled > > ^^^^^ > CB: Well, PEN-L has been predicting a crisis for a while , now.
PEN-L has been predicting a crisis for a while, now, because social relations are not as unpredictable as complexity theory or its interpretation by some suggests. In probability theory there are three important types of processes, called adapted, predictable and neither adapted nor predictable: 1) given the current information what is happening to the process now is known: such processes are adapted; 2) given the information one period before, what will happen to the process in the next period is known: such processes are predictable; 3) even given the current information, neither what is happening now nor what will happen in the next period is not known: such processes are neither adapted nor predictable. There is a fourth type among many more processes such that given the current information, even what happened in the past is not known with certainty. As we all know, past may be more uncertain than the future, since the past can be rewritten every day, but let us leave that aside now. Of course, how we define what is the current period and what is the next period is problematic in the sense that is a period a second or a day or a month so forth? But, this is another issue. Nevertheless, neither all events of the past nor all events of the future are unpredictable as well as neither all events of the present are non-adapted, and this is where many ardent believers of complexity theory screw up. Certain events of the past, present and future can be "predicted," that is, their probability of occurrence can be assigned with great confidence, sometimes with 100% confidence. Those of us who were able to predict what was coming were not able to tell the every single detail of what is happening now. But, predicting is not about fortune telling. If complexity theory is saying that fortune telling is impossible, then I have no objections. But, if it is saying that nothing is predictable, then I have serious problems with that theory. If for nothing, for the simple reason that it goes against everything I know about the probability theory. Best, Sabri _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
