On Nov 5, 2008, at 11:47 AM, Julio Huato wrote:
This is an interesting early analysis of exit poll and other data by
Andrew Gelman (Columbia):
http://redbluerichpoor.com/blog/?p=206
Gelman seems to conclude that the main phenomenon was an
across-the-board partisan shift (towards the DP), reinforced by the
economic debacle. This is not bad news for the left.
Julio,
I am not so sure. Gelman does write:
The red/blue map was not redrawn; it was more of a national partisan
swing.
But immediately, he adds:
Again, Obama didn’t redraw the map; he shifted the map over in his
favor. (Or, to put it more precisely, the economy shifted the map
over in the Democrats’ favor and Obama took advantage of this.)
i.e., more people voted Democrat/Obama because of the particular
economic event during which the election occurred. With which I agree.
Except I would not say "the economy shifted the map" (that term is
what, IMHO, provides the false hope), but "the economy shifted the
vote".
I continue to hold my judgement on what Obama's election means for the
left, but these numbers do not help clarify the issue. They are what
is to be expected: after 8 years of Republican mismanagement, looting,
incompetence and murder, the population said, well, okay, let's give
these other guys a shot. And that aided by a last minute financial
meltdown, and an alternative candidate whose mental stability was at
times openly questionable, wedded to a ignoramus alarmist for the
assistant role.
Without doubt, there are other issues to consider, e.g., shifting
demographics in the Western states.
--ravi
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