On Sun, 2009-01-04 at 15:30 -0800, raghu wrote: > Quite an interesting article that documents warnings about the bubble > as early as 2001. > > http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/12/31/housing-bubble-crash-oped-cx_bb_0102bartlett.html > -------------------------------------------------snip > I first created a folder on the housing bubble back in 2001 and began > collecting material on the subject. The very first piece I filed was > an article from a September 2001 issue of Forbescalled "What If > Housing Crashed?" by Stephane Fitch and Brandon Copple. Read today, > the article was remarkably prescient. > [...] > In June 2002, I filed a report by economist Ed Leamer of UCLA noting > that the ratio of home prices to rent was rising rapidly and that this > represented a kind of price to earnings ratio for the housing market. [...]
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/the-run-up-in-home-prices-is-it-real-or-is-it-another-bubble/ "The Run-Up in Home Prices: Is It Real or Is It Another Bubble? August 2002, Dean Baker" There's about everything in this paper: probable loss of housing wealth given the price deviation from trend with no reason, probable impact on spending and growth, etc... All the right measures and predictions. Dean Baker did update it from then up to now, noting that all incompetent/recidivist arsonist economists are now part of Obama economic team instead of being rightfully discredited and flipping some burgers in a remote part of the country without health insurance. Good luck to USA citizens, they'll need it. Laurent _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
