The following article on China is well worth reading--especially note
the figures in the following paragraph taken from the article:
Estimates by government research agencies for urban jobless top 18
million, or 9 percent of the workforce -- a rate unimaginably high
to those who remember the guaranteed cradle-to-grave employment
during Mao's time. This figure doesn't include the growing number of
jobless among the 160 million migrant workers who are mostly
employed in factories. The rural unemployment rate could be as high
as 20 percent. In addition, 1 million college graduates are not
expected to be able to find jobs this year.
And one can only expect further deterioration in China's economy as the
global downturn deepens. Clearly things are far from stable in China.
Problems are just as serious if other East Asian countries. One has to
wonder if the East Asian export-led growth model has finally run up
against its own limits. And if so, what kind of debates and alternative
visions may emerge in its place.
Marty
As China's Jobless Numbers Mount, Protests Grow Bolder
Economic Woes Shining a Light On Social Issues
By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, January 13, 2009; A07
BEIJING -- For months, the Communist Party had been able to deflect
anger about factory closings toward the companies themselves. The
party managed to come off as the benevolent savior by handing out
cash to make up for unpaid salaries. The strategy stopped working at
the Jianrong Suitcase Factory in late December.
When offered 60 percent of their wages to disband their protest and
go home, the workers pushed back at riot police sent to keep them
locked in their factory compound in the southern Chinese city of
Dongguan. According to several witnesses, more than 100 irate
workers broke through the cordon, some shouting, "There are no human
rights here!"
As a global recession takes hold and China's economy continues to
slow, growing legions of unemployed workers are becoming
increasingly bold in expressing their unhappiness -- expanding a
debate over how to protect the Chinese economy into long-fought
disputes over other issues such as freedom of expression and
equality before the law.
During most of the past two decades, concerns about China's human
rights record have been overshadowed by the speed of its economic
development and growing political influence in the world.
But as the economic crisis has grown, so, too, have challenges --
both small and large -- to the state's power.
In late November, two men whose village was involved in a dispute
over a land deal took ink-filled eggs and desecrated Communist Party
and national flags in Chongqing, the largest of China's four
provincial-level municipalities, in a protest that copied the
infamous defacing of Mao Zedong's portrait in the capital in 1989.
In December, 300 academics and other intellectuals signed a
declaration of human rights known as Charter '08 that circulated on
the Internet, sending Chinese authorities on a nationwide manhunt
for its author.
Labor rights activist Li Qiang said China's economic problems have
put the spotlight on social issues that have long existed -- such as
the growing gap between the urban rich and the rural poor and the
fight for worker rights -- but were played down by the government
during the recent boom.
"The crisis in the West is purely economic. But in China it's a huge
political problem," said Li, director of the New York-based China
Labor Watch.
The ripple effects of the sharp economic downturn are growing: Crime
is rising, as are labor strikes by taxi drivers, teachers, factory
workers and even investors unhappy that their stock market holdings
are now 70 percent off their peak.
Although Chinese authorities have been able to quickly disband the
recent protests, there is concern that a single national-level
event, if mishandled by authorities, could lead to a serious
political crisis.
"Without doubt, we are entering a peak period for mass incidents. In
2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that
will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the
party and government," Huang Huo, a reporter for the state-run New
China News Agency, warned this month in a magazine published by the
news service.
The greatest threat may come from the newly unemployed.
Unemployment is now estimated to be at its highest levels since the
Communist Party took over in 1949. Job creation and preservation has
become a top priority of China's leaders, who are acutely aware of
the role a deteriorating economy played in the 1989 Tiananmen Square
protests.
Economists say that if the growth of China's gross domestic product
dips below 8 percent -- a healthy rate in most countries -- it would
be a disaster here. The reason is that the demand for jobs would far
outpace China's ability to create them.
Estimates by government research agencies for urban jobless top 18
million, or 9 percent of the workforce -- a rate unimaginably high
to those who remember the guaranteed cradle-to-grave employment
during Mao's time. This figure doesn't include the growing number of
jobless among the 160 million migrant workers who are mostly
employed in factories. The rural unemployment rate could be as high
as 20 percent. In addition, 1 million college graduates are not
expected to be able to find jobs this year.
China's social security minister, Yin Weimin, has said that the
employment situation in China is "critical," with people fighting
for jobs that don't exist. This year as many as 24 million people
will be competing for as few as 8 million newly created jobs.
To combat unemployment, the Chinese government in recent weeks has
reinstituted controls that in some ways turn back the clock to
the "iron rice bowl" era that China has tried so hard to leave
behind during 30 years of economic reforms.
Among the most radical measures is an order by some provinces and
cities that prohibits companies from laying off workers without the
explicit permission of the government. Other local governments are
offering a subsidy of about $1,500 for every worker hired who had
not already had a job elsewhere, and seed money for start-ups that
will employ a certain number of people. The central government for
its part has purchased millions of tons of cotton, soybeans, sugar
and other products to prevent companies from experiencing financial
problems that would lead to a reduction in their workforces.
And as part of its massive $586 billion stimulus plan -- roughly 15
percent of its GDP -- China has embarked on several dubious public
works projects.
A $3 billion metro rail system linking the southern manufacturing
cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen, for instance, has been
criticized as a waste of money because there are already four
railway lines linking the cities and the trains often run empty.
Ditto a $4.5 billion highway connecting the Sichuan province cities
of Chengdu, Zigong and Luzhou, because there are already highways
from Chengdu to Zigong and from Zigong to Luzhou.
A bridge running from just outside Shanghai to a textile
manufacturing center on the other side of a bay was also resurrected
to create construction jobs. For years, its designers had been
unable to get the $2 billion they needed to build it because its
route would mostly duplicate that of another massive bridge that was
already under construction.
That changed in November when at least six of the biggest employers
at the other end of the bridge, in Shaoxing, went out of business.
Even though there is less need because of the closures, blueprints
for the second bridge were dusted off and, almost overnight, workers
broke ground. The project is expected to employ about 250,000 people
and indirectly provide jobs for 300,000 more.
Liu Bo, a 20-year-old salesman, said he hasn't seen any benefits
from the government's efforts in his job search yet.
Technically speaking, Liu wasn't laid off but told by his employer,
which provides sales help to companies during exhibitions, to take
an unpaid "break" because there was no work. He has been sending out
his r¨¦sum¨¦ to company after company, but so far nothing. In previous
years, Liu said, "I used to receive two or three interview
invitation calls every day whenever I sent out my CV, but now there
is really nobody who calls me." He is not hopeful about the
government efforts: "I never want to depend on the government."
Liu is not the only one to discover the limits of China's deep
pockets.
For all the help it is giving workers at factories in the export-
heavy region of Guangdong province on the country's southern border,
the government simply can't afford to pay every worker every yuan
they are owed.
Now dealing with the third month of protests and sit-ins, the
government has been gradually reducing its cash payouts to laid-off
workers.
The workers at the Jianrong Suitcase Factory, who make an average of
about $220 a month, finally accepted the government's money and went
home after their bosses couldn't be located. But it was not without
a fight that left workers with scrapes and bruises and, more
important, resentment over their fate.
Still, the Jianrong workers are among the lucky ones. Tong Hengxin,
a headhunter in Guangzhou, said some laid-off factory workers are
getting back much less from the government, only a third of what
they rightfully earned. With job prospects bleak, that money can't
last long. As a result, Tong said, the mood is desperate: "Workers
are always threatening to jump from the buildings and commit
suicide."
Researchers Liu Liu, Liu Songjie, and Zhang Jie in Beijing
contributed to this report.
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