Mother Nature may have smiled upon William Petty, whose maturity coincided with
a short, but welcome break in the Little Ice Age. Shortly before Petty's death
in 1687, the cold weather returned. For example, the winter of 1683-4 was
particularly harsh (Lamb 1982, p. 223).
Today, when the threat of global warming looms large, people might be
more sensitive to the profound effects of the weather. In earlier periods of
cold weather created equally harmful results. One long-term study of the
effects of weather over the centuries concluded: "cooling impeded agricultural
production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including
price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline
successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace,
population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by
long-term climate change" (Zhang et al. 2007, p. 19215).
David Hackett Fischer's The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the
Rhythm of History paints the stark picture of the times of Petty's youth:
Famine, pestilence, and economic depression were accompanied by
war. During the entire century from 1551 to 1650, peace prevailed throughout
the continent only in a single year 1610. These conflicts were remarkable not
only for their frequency but also their ferocity.
During the early seventeenth century, the armies of Europe
reached their largest size since the Roman era. Their upkeep imposed heavy
costs at the same time that public revenues were reduced by the combined effect
of famine, pestilence, war, depression, regressive taxation and monetary
inflation. They also were put to use in most of Europe. [Fisher 1996, pp.
96-97]
Fisher went on to add: "The greatest works of literature, painting, philosophy
and theology in this era commonly expressed a mood of increasing pessimism and
despair" (Fisher 1996, p. 100). During the second half of the Seventeenth
Century, conditions were improving grain prices tended to fall (Fisher 1995, p.
105).
None of this is meant to suggest that the world suddenly became a
comfortable place of peace and prosperity. The winter of 1683-4 was
particularly cold. In addition, Petty's own work with the Royal Society was
closely associated with preparing for military adventures. Some of his later
writings suggested that the prospects for war with France were favorable. And
finally, an optimistic belief in progress was not unknown during the cold
period. Samuel Hartlib, Petty's own promoter was a case in point.
Nonetheless, the optimistic swagger of Petty's proposals fell on more
fertile ground as future prospects were looking better. More broadly, economic
thinking tends to follow one of two paths. First, some give an ideological
justification of the status quo, arguing that what is happens to be the optimal
arrangement for now and for the future. Others offer proposals for
improvement. At times, such as the warming mid-seventeenth century, when new
possibilities seem to be opening, such proposals are more likely to fall on
fertile ground.
For example, even though Hartlib's musings about information might seem
quite modern in light of the Internet, he never exercised much influence.
Petty, who also had his share of far-fetched ideas, was generally recognized as
a genius, even by many who disagreed with him.
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
michaelperelman.wordpress.com
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