[the good news for Obama is that he can say "my generals have said
again and again that without a democratically-representative
government in Kabul, a war there is futile. So we're pulling out all
of our troops as soon as we can." Of course, this isn't going to
happen. Instead, my guess is that the US will likely "broker" a deal
between Karzai and A2, forming an emergency government. Then more
troops will go in....]

from today's NYT:
>>October 20, 2009
Audit Pushes Karzai Below 50 Percent in Afghan Vote
By SABRINA TAVERNISE

KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghanistan’s political crisis deepened on
Monday, with President Hamid Karzai hesitating to accept an
international audit that stripped him of nearly a million votes,
requiring a runoff with his top challenger.

A panel of United Nations-appointed experts issued findings for the
first time on Monday showing that the fraud was so pervasive that Mr.
Karzai had not won the Aug. 20 election outright, according to foreign
and Afghan officials in the capital, Kabul.

The findings are a defining moment for Mr. Karzai, who initially
received 54 percent of the vote, and believes he is the rightful
winner. They place him in direct conflict with his main backer, the
United States, and threaten to pitch the country into a major
constitutional crisis, should he decide to reject them altogether.

The Obama administration registered its concern. Senator John Kerry of
Massachusetts, a top Obama ally and the chairman of the Foreign
Relations Committee, made an unplanned stop in Kabul on Monday night,
and met Mr. Karzai in the presidential palace, “to continue his
discussions and consultations,” according to a spokeswoman for the
American Embassy in Kabul.

The special audit committee, the Electoral Complaints Commission,
invalidated nearly a third of all ballots cast for Mr. Karzai,
according to a New York Times analysis of the preliminary data. More
precisely, 28 percent of Mr. Karzai’s 3,093,000 votes were discarded
due to fraud, the analysis showed.

The result pushed Mr. Karzai’s final vote total to about 49 percent,
below the threshold needed to avoid a runoff. An independent analysis
by an election monitoring group, Democracy International, gave Mr.
Karzai about 48.3 percent, The Associated Press reported. A Western
official familiar with the results had predicted that result earlier
Monday.

The committee also threw out 18 percent of the votes of Abdullah
Abdullah, a former foreign minister and Mr. Karzai’s top challenger,
leaving him with 31 percent of the total vote, more than the 28
percent he had originally polled. <<

-- 
Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own
way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante.
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