On Thu, Jun 10, 2010 at 5:35 AM, brad <[email protected]> wrote:
> Jim writes:
>>I'm saying that high prices of hydrocarbons -- from whatever source --
> discourage the use of them (while their use causes global warming). I
> would rather have those high prices come from a carbon tax than from
> "normal" workings of supply and demand, since with the tax (in theory)
> the revenues could be used to compensate the poor for high gasoline
> prices, etc. rather than going into the pockets of Tony Hayward, Dick
> Cheney, and his ilk. Of course, where the revenues go depends on the
> fight-back.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> I am rejecting the claim that higher prices leads to reduced use.  But
> even if we accept that, greater investment in commodity index funds
> and oil futures also drives up the price of hydrocarbons, as does
> monopoly or cartel control.  Are these also things that we should
> cheer on and hope lead to a good fight-back?  Sorry, but I fail to see
> how the politics of 'peak oil' are at all beneficial to the left.  It
> only naturalizes what is a social problem and legitimize notions of
> supply and demand as constant and predictable tools we can use (they
> are not).
>
> Brad
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Don't have time right now to make a real post. But I've written a lot
on elasticity in the past. And the empirical data shows that price
increases are a weak tool in reducing use.Large prices increases
result in comparative low reductions in demand.  But that is not the
same as saying there is ZERO demand reduction. The same empirical data
shows weak responses and very definitely not no response. In fact I
don't think there is a single study ever that showed no response. (And
given the immense quantity of data showing responses, I would be
extremely suspicious of any outlier showing zero response.) As to
desirability of price increases - that depends on context and
implemenation. My fear of price increases is that focus on price
distracts from the large scale public investment and command & control
regulation that are more urgent that will be responsible for the
overwhelming majority of emissions reductions should we ever have to
political power and will to implement a real emissions reduction
policy.
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