Max B. Sawicky wrote:
> http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html
It's very doubtful that powerful interest groups in the US anticipated
this find, so it can't be seen as a reason for the original invasion
of Afghanistan. But it does create an extra incentive for US troops to
stay there. Under current neoliberal norms, I'd expect that Karzai
would get richer. Though the Afghan government might end up owning the
mineral-laden lands, transnational corporations (especially those with
connections in the White House) would be in charge of extraction. And
they'd bribe Karzai and his friends in the Northern Alliance. The
increase in the relative wealth of the Afghan "ins" would likely raise
the ire of the Taliban and the like even more. The mineral rents also
raise the stakes of the war (just as wars in Africa are sometimes
spurred by rents reaped from diamond mining).
Is this "primitive accumulation"? it definitely adds to the rental
income of the extraction companies. But does it take away Afghans'
direct access to the means of production and thus proletarianize them?
(That's what "primitive accumulation" meant to Marx.)
It's possible that a mineral boom will cause the "Dutch disease." In
addition to a rise in corruption, this would usually involves raising
the value of the local currency (the afghani, AFN). This makes other
Afghan exports such as opium more expensive on the world market, which
encourages world cut-backs in opium use. But I'd guess that effect
would be very small at least in the near-term (since it's addictive).
The growers would benefit from the greater ability of their afghanis
to buy imports. So it's quite possible that one of the key elements of
the Dutch disease (which often involves driving out small producers)
wouldn't happen. The opium and lithium trades may be able to coexist
in peace. But we'll see.
--
Jim Devine
"Those who take the most from the table
Teach contentment.
Those for whom the taxes are destined
Demand sacrifice.
Those who eat their fill speak to the hungry
of wonderful times to come.
Those who lead the country into the abyss
Call ruling too difficult
For ordinary folk." – Bertolt Brecht.
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