http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/14/tax-cut-polling-contradictory_n_796411.html
Baffling Wave Of Tax-Cut Polling Produces Wildly Different Conclusions
If you've been following the various polling reports on how the
general public feels about the tax-cut package that President
Barack Obama brokered and which might, in some form, make it
through the legislative process, then you are probably lost and
confused. Please fire a flare gun into the air, and we will send
rescuers to your area.
Back on Dec. 2, CBS put out a poll that signaled a rough road
ahead for anyone who wanted to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for
everybody.
Twenty-six percent overall support! That's the same proportion of
people who believe trees have spiritual energy. More people
approve of the way BP handled the oil spill.
With all the effort being put toward getting this tax cut
compromise passed, surely we could repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell".
Surely we could legalize weed. And, okay, I admit it: I am a
little bit interested in exploring this whole "spiritual energy of
trees" thing, because what if the Lorax was right?
But what if the Lorax is actually skewing that poll result?
Because depending on how much time has passed, and who asks the
question, and what question they ask, the support for the tax-cut
compromise is all over the map. Let me pass the mike to HuffPost
Pollster's Emily Swanson:
As is typical of any polling on specific issues, different
wording can produce vastly different results, which can be quite
difficult to interpret. For example, the option of extending the
cuts for everyone is not the least popular option in the tax
debate itself. While most public polls have shown that extending
the tax cuts only for those making less than $250,000 is by far
the most popular option, polls have shown that allowing all of the
cuts to expire would be even less popular. The same CBS poll found
that only 14 percent wanted to let the cuts expire for everyone.
As Emily goes on to note, when Crossroads GPS -- a Rove/Gillespie
joint -- is asking the question, here's what happens: "when
presented with only two options, 65 percent of likely voters would
prefer to extend the cuts and only 29 percent would allow them to
expire."
This brings us, inexorably, to Monday's Washington Post/ABC News
poll on the matter. Good news for fans of tax-cut compromises: the
package now has "broad bipartisan support" -- that is, "About
seven in ten Americans back the tax deal negotiated last week by
President Obama and congressional Republicans."
Now for the twist:
The high bipartisan support for the package masks more tepid
public approval for some of the main components of the agreement
that comes before a key Senate vote Monday afternoon.
A slender 11 percent of those polled back all four of the
deal's primary tax provisions: an across-the-board extension of
Bush-era tax cuts, additional jobless benefits, a payroll tax
holiday and a $5 million threshold for inheritance taxes. Just 38
percent support even two of the components.
I guess this is why this tax-cut compromise is so brilliant: in
terms of policy, it may be a turd sandwich, but most people are
pretty convinced that they'll be getting the bread or the condiments.
I think someone should frame the question like this: "Are you in
favor of the tax-cut compromise, even though we're all going to
have the same old stupid arguments about this matter in 2012 and
it will appear that nobody has learned a blessed thing about what
America needs in terms of policy, or would you prefer we came to
your house right now and shot you in the face?"
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