NY Times April 25, 2012 Double-Dip Recession in Britain By JULIA WERDIGIER and JACK EWING
LONDON — Britain has fallen into its first double-dip recession since the 1970s, according to official figures released Wednesday, a development that raised more questions about whether government belt-tightening in Europe has gone too far. The report of an unexpected 0.2 percent decline in economic output during the first quarter of 2012 provoked an outcry in Britain and came on the same day that Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, shifted his rhetoric on the debt crisis to put more emphasis on growth. Mr. Draghi called for a “growth compact” and a re-examination of where the euro is headed. “We need to actively step up our reflections about the longer-term vision for Europe as we have done in the past at other defining moments in the history of our union,” Mr. Draghi told members of the European Parliament in Brussels. Yet, amid growing popular unrest, Mr. Draghi rejected calls for more deficit spending. The way to restore growth is to make economies more efficient, he said. “We have to persevere,” he added. Britain is now in its second recession in three years. The last time the country experienced a double-dip recession was when Margaret Thatcher was elected leader of the opposition Conservative Party in 1975. In a packed British Parliament, Prime Minister David Cameron had to defend his austerity drive against critics like Ed Miliband, head of the opposition Labour Party, who called the economic numbers “catastrophic.” The raucous scene was the latest manifestation of growing popular frustration with the strict fiscal diet that has been prescribed by the European Central Bank and German leaders in response to the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis. While Britain is not a member of the euro zone, its economic fortunes are closely linked with those of the currency union. The discontent was on view in French elections last weekend and played a role in the collapse of the Dutch government on Monday. Greece, Spain and Italy have been the scene of mass demonstrations for months, but the turmoil now seems to be spreading to countries that were not seen as being at the heart of the crisis. Britain joined Belgium, the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain in recession. Except for Germany, most European countries do not have the financial leeway to pump up their economies with public works projects or other government spending, economists say. Leaders are groping for ways to encourage growth with the limited means at their disposal. Mr. Draghi acknowledged Wednesday that such changes were difficult for the citizens affected. Economic reforms “change profoundly the societies in which we live,” he said. “This is a source of pain.” He urged national leaders to take steps to promote long-term growth even when it is politically difficult. Some leaders have raised taxes or cut infrastructure projects, when instead they should be reducing government operating expenses, Mr. Draghi said. Mr. Draghi’s plea for beleaguered Europeans to stay the course came as the central bank released a bank survey showing a sharp decline in demand for credit by borrowers, which analysts said was further evidence that the euro zone is in recession. In Britain, some economists had predicted a small increase in first-quarter gross domestic product after recent surveys had indicated that the economy was recovering, although very slowly. Mr. Cameron’s government had pointed to the recovery as a sign that the austerity measures it implemented were working. “It’s too early to call for a reversal of government policy,” said Azad Zangana, an economist at Schroders. But he added, “These latest results do highlight that the economy will not withstand any further acceleration in cuts.” The British gross domestic product numbers caused bewilderment among some economists, including Andrew Goodwin of Ernst & Young’s economic forecasting unit, the Item Club. “Our reaction to these figures is one of disbelief,” Mr. Goodwin said. “I would be very surprised if these figures were not revised upwards.” Even if the figures are later revised, they could have a negative effect on consumer sentiment and corporate spending, said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight. The report could “hit consumer and business hard and make sustainable growth harder to achieve.” Output in the British construction sector fell 3 percent in the first quarter while output from production industries fell 0.4 percent, the government statistics office said Wednesday. Manufacturing shrank 0.1 percent and the services sector grew 0.1 percent. In Parliament, Mr. Cameron conceded that “these are very, very disappointing figures” and that Britain was in a “very tough situation that frankly just got tougher.” Mr. Cameron’s government, a coalition of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, has been losing ground to Labour in recent polls as voters have become disillusioned with the economic outlook and the austerity plan. But Mr. Cameron said the government would stick to its plan to eliminate most of the budget deficit by 2017. “More debt and more spending is what got us into this problem,” Mr. Cameron said. “It can’t be the solution of the problem.” Mr. Draghi took a similar tack, saying countries with a record of deficit spending have not seen benefits; instead their economies have “flatlined,” he said. “If one thinks you can increase demand by increasing deficits,” he said, without naming any countries, “then how come we don’t have higher demand?” As Mr. Draghi spoke, the central bank released its quarterly survey of bank lending, which offered probably the best data yet on the effect of the inexpensive, three-year loans that the central bank issued to commercial banks in recent months. The survey showed that banks continue to tighten the standards they apply to borrowers, but at a more modest rate than in the last survey. In addition, banks said they were having an easier time raising money by issuing their own corporate bonds or borrowing on money markets. Mr. Draghi said the underlying problem was not so much lack of credit as lack of demand by borrowers, which has plunged. “Demand is subdued and therefore demand for credit is subdued,” he said. Under sometimes hostile, sometimes sympathetic questioning in Brussels by members of the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Mr. Draghi avoided commenting directly on the political events of recent days. But he demonstrated he was well-aware of them. The euro zone has arrived at “probably the most difficult phase of our process,” Mr. Draghi said. In the first round of French presidential elections on Sunday, the Socialist candidate, François Hollande, won the most votes after promising to step up such traditional forms of government stimulus as subsidies for industry. On Monday, the Dutch government fell amid an impasse over budget cuts. Mr. Draghi did not rule out the possibility that the European Central Bank might issue to commercial banks another round of cheap loans. He expressed optimism that the central bank cash would begin to have a positive effect. “Given enough time,” he said, “this money will find its way into the economy.” Julia Werdigier reported from London, and Jack Ewing from Frankfurt. --- http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/gdp-report-rate-of-us-economic-growth-slows-to-22percent/2012/04/27/gIQAwZaElT_story.html GDP report: rate of U.S. economic growth slows to 2.2% By Peter Whoriskey, Updated: Friday, April 27, 9:20 AM The U.S. economic recovery slowed in the first three months of the year, with growth falling to an annual rate of 2. 2 percent, as government spending declined, imports rose and the boost last year from a buildup of inventories eased, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists had been anticipating growth of at least 2.5 percent, surveys show. In the last three months of last year, the economy grew at a rate of 3 percent, according to the Commerce Department. The report of gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy, particularly in an election year. Friday’s announcement - of growth, but not rapid growth - will likely be addressed by both presidential campaigns. “Following a strong performance at the end of 2011, this most recent growth rate may be called modest, at best,” said Kathy Bostjancic, director for macroeconomic analysis, at The Conference Board. Wall Street traders appeared slightly pleased by the number on opening bell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 0.22 percent after the news. Economists remain divided over the the strength of the recovery, and on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the central bank’s wait-and-see approach to the economy, announcing that the Fed would take no new actions to boost growth and would keep interest rates near zero into 2014. What expansion there was largely came from an increase in household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy. Consumer spending rose 2.9 percent, beating expectations. “Despite consumer anxiety over gas and food prices that are stretching household budgets, consumers are still spending,” Bostjancic said. The budget woes at all levels of government continue to put downward pressure on the economy, according to the report. Federal government spending dropped 5.6 percent; spending by state and local government dropped by 1.2 percent. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
