On 2012-05-13, at 2:30 PM, Sabri Oncu wrote: > I don't know what will happen after this, but if the Greek Austerians > lose the game, it is most likely that Greece will be kicked out of > euro. If that happens, they should repudiate their debt by invoking > the odious debt claim, convert their debt - public and private - to > their new currency after writing off as much of it as they can, > unilaterally, and pay their remaining debt in their new currency.
They will have no choice but to adopt their own currency, and the far left inside and outside Greece is as divided as the mainstream financial commentariat about whether reversion to the drachma and a chaotic default will open the road to recovery or further immiserate the Greek people. Alan Woods of the International Marxist Tendency, in a lengthy but excellent analysis of the French and Greek elections: "The forced exit of Greece from the euro would be posed point blank. The resultant chaos and social upheavals would be extremely dangerous for capitalism in Greece. It would be the difference between a car going downhill with bad brakes and one with no brakes at all. The bourgeoisie of the EU are appalled by such a prospect. But if nothing is done and done soon, this perspective might soon have to be confronted sooner rather than later. "The inevitable result is a chaotic default and the ejection of Greece from the eurozone and probably also from the EU itself. The consequences for the whole of Europe would be catastrophic, but for Greece it would be even worse. Contrary to the nationalist illusions of the KKE, a return to the drachma would solve nothing and make a bad situation far worse. The new drachma would be worthless in international markets. The collapse of the currency would spell sky-high inflation, a run on the banks and the liquidation of savings and pensions. Such a situation would be pregnant with revolutionary implications, as in Germany 1923. Full: http://www.marxist.com/the-crisis-in-europe-a-decisive-turn-in-the-situation.htm Floyd Norris of the NYT, writing last October: "In early 2002, a new Argentine government ended the peg and did much more. It defaulted, and it required its citizens to do the same. If you had a dollar deposit in an Argentine bank, it became a peso deposit, soon to be worth about 30 United States cents to the peso. That was true regardless of who owned the bank. If you wanted to get dollars back from your Citibank deposit in Buenos Aires, you were out of luck. "Argentina was cut off from international credit. Imports plunged and the country entered a deep — but relatively brief — recession. The peso lost two-thirds of its value within a few months. Argentina was sued by everyone in sight. "But devaluation worked, as it often does. Argentine exports became competitive thanks to lower costs, and the economy rebounded. There are international judgments still outstanding against the country, but when it comes to sovereign states it can be easier to get judgments than to collect on them. Diplomatic assets are off limits — no one can grab the Argentine Embassy in Washington — and monetary assets can be kept with the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland, which will not allow them to be seized." Full: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/business/global/how-greece-could-escape-the-euro.html?_r=1&ref=business&pagewanted=all Norris, however, nowhere mentions that the global economy led by China was in the midst of an accelerating boom in 2002. The situation today, as we know, is much different. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
