Some days ago Paul Zarembka wrote:
> Yes, I am focusing upon the external financial (non military) actors against
> Greece implementing anti-austerity.
>
> For example, "Bids were solicited for the gas company, DEPA, under the
> previous government, which had also promised to partly sell off the other two
> [gas and largest oil refiner]. Mr. Lafazanis [Energy Minister] also opposed
> plans to privatize the power grid operator, in comments to another newspaper,
> Ethnos, claiming that the bids made to date 'are not binding.' " (NYT,
> 2/25/2015)
>
Things are not always as clear as one thinks - see the example of DEPA's
subsidiary DESFA, the reluctance of EU institutions to consent to this
privatization, and the background of Lafazanis' recent visit to Baku:
http://www.azernews.az/analysis/78566.html
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/26/business/international/greek-energy-official-opposes-privatization.html?_r=0#story-continues-2>
>
> However, "The Greek economic plan approved by eurozone finance ministers on
> Tuesday promised not to roll back any privatization projects already in the
> works. Moreover, Greece needs the few billion euros that those sales might
> raise." (ibid.)
>
> So, are those external actors going to accept halting privatizations, and the
> euros thereby brought into the Greek Treasury? Or, will they take a hard line
> in any negotiations? I think the latter, for pretty straightforward reasons.
>
> Paul Zarembka
>
On privatizations in general: "There we do in fact have a different approach. We
have to make state assets usable, but we shouldn't sell everything. Otherwise,
the proceeds will disappear directly into the black hole of debt. Instead, we
want to use the revenues from state-owned companies to shore up social welfare"
(Tsipras in today's Spiegel interview)
Your guess is: The Greek government and Syriza will be squeezed to surrender
before they can use a primary budget surplus to fight the humanitarian crisis
effectively.
Tsipras, Varoufakis and Galbraiths's plan: "If Greece can't service its debt,
that also has an effect on our partners. As such, a safety net for Greece is
necessary and we also have to return to the capital markets as rapidly as
possible. But that can't be combined with a program that has led to a situation
of social distress; we need one that brings growth." (ibid.)
Well, that's an interesting juxtaposition - though I can't agree with your view,
that the latter position boils down to naivete, as you wrote in your last post.
As far as ECB's "rope on the neck" and further thumbscrews of other financial
actors (by the way, both ECB and EU are not "external" actors to Greece) are
concerned I think the outcome is not as straightforward as you assume: Next
round of negotiations next Monday.
Hinrich
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