My colleague, Glenn Switkes, is also looking for an economist to help out. I'm wondering if you could forward the following message to your list? Thanks so much, Aviva.
International Rivers Network Latin America Program Seeking Economist
For the publication "Experts´ Panel on the Xingu Hydroelectric Complex", we are looking for a consulting economist to write a "technical note" regarding issues concerning the economic feasibility of the Belo Monte dam in the Brazilian Amazon. This technical note would briefly examine the cost structure of the dam as presented by Eletronorte in their feasibility study for the project, including interest during construction, and projections of civil construction and electrical equipment costs. Using data developed by the panel for probable overall energy generation (in GWh/yr) and Eletronorte´s own figures, the specialist would calculate the cost per MWh of energy given various scenarios in the actual cost of building the dam, and would comment on issues such as the probability of the dam costing what Eletronorte says it would (in comparison with other dams constructed recently in Brazil).
We would furnish information in English, with additional material available, if needed in Portuguese. The direct contact would be Glenn Switkes, Latin American officer for IRN in Brazil (via phone). Additional consultation would be appropriate with the project coordinator, Professor Oswaldo Sevá of the Mechanical Engineering Dept. of Campinas University, São Paulo state, Brazil. We would expect no more than 3-5 pages of text, and in gratitude for this important contribution, we can offer only a symbolic honorarium of $350. We would need the draft text within 3-4 weeks, and the final text within 6 weeks.
If you're interested or able to help out, please contact Glenn Switkes directly at [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Now the article from yesterday's Wall Street Journal
Dammed If They Do ...
Power-Starved Asian Nation Revisits Hydroelectric Option Despite Pitfalls By PATRICK BARTA Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL September 30, 2004; Page A15
NAKAI PLATEAU, Laos -- Lacking industry but blessed with rivers, poverty-stricken Laos once dreamed of becoming the Kuwait of hydroelectric power. In the early 1990s, developers rolled out a list of planned projects for the Southeast Asian nation, topped by the largest infrastructure investment in its history: A $1.2 billion dam called Nam Theun 2.
Opposition by environmentalists slowed its progress. Then, the Asian economic crisis of 1997 killed the project. But now, Asia is thirsty for power again -- and Nam Theun 2 is back in play.
LAOS EMERGES
• See a chart showing the growing demand for electricity.
• Laos Is Looking Like a Gold Mine to Foreigners 09/16/04
Its resurrection encapsulates an emerging debate in Asia: Power demand is soaring, but the region also has some of the world's foulest air. So, governments are turning back to hydro, a relatively clean alternative to coal or fuel plants -- but one that has environmental consequences of its own due to its potential to damage rivers and displace communities.
Nonetheless, hydro projects are in the works across the region, especially in China and Myanmar, which itself has 51 dams in various stages of development, by one estimate. Laos has 18.
All that activity also has reopened a debate over what role, if any, big lenders like the World Bank should play in promoting dams. The Washington-based development bank slashed funding for hydro projects in the 1990s as opposition to them grew. That was followed in 2000 by a report by the World Commission on Dams, an independent organization formed by the bank and others, that found big dams in the developing world often cause widespread ecological damage without achieving expected economic benefits.
But the World Bank has expressed renewed interest recently. It is considering offering a crucial loan guarantee to help Nam Theun 2 secure international financing. If approved, it would be the biggest dam backed by the World Bank in years.
The debate is coming to a head. Although neighboring Thailand has agreed to buy Nam Theun 2's power for 25 years, its contract gives the developers only until May to get financing in place. If they don't, the developers face penalties and delays that could jeopardize the entire project.
World Bank officials say they believe Nam Theun 2 could generate big economic benefits for landlocked Laos, which has few options for reducing poverty. But they say they still want to be convinced there are enough safeguards in place to make sure the dam is developed responsibly.
A typical house in a village that would be flooded by the dam.
"We very much want to help the people of Laos and frankly, this project seems to offer the best hope for doing that in a country where the two big potential revenue earners are chopping down trees or selling hydroelectricity," says Peter Stephens, a regional spokesman for the World Bank in Singapore. "But we need to be sure the environment is going to be protected."
Largely at the request of the World Bank, the developers -- which include state-owned Electricité de France, or EDF, and the Laotian government -- are jumping through hoops that hydro developers wouldn't have attempted a decade ago. That includes, by their reckoning, 600 environmental- and social-impact studies and years of consultations with villagers. Laos's closed Communist government has hired a public-relations consultant, set up a flashy Web site called "Powering Progress" and even sent government officials on a world tour to answer questions.
If the project goes through, it is "likely to bring more confidence into the industry" and lead to similar dams, says Jean-Michel Devernay, a deputy managing director of hydro engineering at EDF, which also is involved with dams in other countries. If the World Bank backs away, some fear, it could deter higher-risk projects elsewhere.
A World Bank retreat also would complicate neighboring Thailand's efforts to meet its energy needs. Thailand's electricity demand is expected to surge to 41,000 megawatts by 2015, 16,000 more than it has the capacity to generate. The country is heavily reliant on natural gas, whose cost is a concern to government officials. Bangkok is hoping Nam Theun 2 will help meet the power shortfall.
Located on a remote plateau deep in the Laotian jungle on the Nam Theun River, the dam's capacity would be about 1,000 megawatts. The development consortium, which includes two Thai companies, already is clearing land.
Environmentalists warn the dam will alter water levels in one river downstream, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of villagers who rely on fishing. They say the dam also will wipe out habitats for numerous rare animals, including one of Southeast Asia's last herds of wild elephants. They also worry that Laos's government, which lacks transparency and has been accused of human-rights abuses, can't be trusted to share the gains.
Activists also criticize Nam Theun 2's developers for declining to publicize the full contents of the power contract they signed with Thailand. Thailand's state power utility is a major shareholder in one of the private companies that has a stake in the project. Activists say they fear that could give the Thai utility an incentive to overpay for the power at the expense of its customers.
"Civil-society organizations have no confidence" in this project, said the Berkeley, Calif.-based International Rivers Network this month.
Nam Theun 2's developers concede the project will have negative environmental consequences. But they have agreed to compensate villagers, resettle 6,000 people and spend $31.5 million for a conservation zone. Thailand's power company says it is following World Bank guidelines to ensure the project is handled responsibly. The developers say Thailand will be paying less than it would for other possible sources of electricity, and that releasing the full contract would lead to too much public debate.
There is little doubt Laos could use the money a dam would generate. Its gross domestic product per capita is on par with Haiti, and some 70% of its citizens live on less than $2 a day. One in 10 children dies by the age of five. The government would receive $2 billion in revenue over 25 years, after which it would take ownership of the asset.
The project will have "a very significant impact on getting our national poverty-eradication strategy to happen," says Somboune Manolom, permanent secretary of Laos's Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts. As for the critics, "we don't expect to get consensus," he says.
Up on the plateau, there seems to be little debate, though it is difficult to determine villagers' full sentiments given Laos's limits on free speech. On a trip organized by the dam's developers, villager after villager expressed hearty support.
Standing barefoot outside a rickety wooden house on stilts, 64-year-old Xieng Kong said he can't wait to move to a resettlement village, where houses will have electricity. Besides, he said, "we follow the guidance of the authorities."
A pilot resettlement village nearby looks like a Catskills summer camp, with sturdy wooden cabins, gravel roads and a gated entrance. The developers are teaching villagers to raise new crops, including peanuts, cabbages and corn, that ostensibly could support them in their new environs.
Downstream, villagers who will remain alongside an affected river expressed a little more concern. If all the promises are met, life "will be better" with the dam, says Khian Thepuongsa, a 56-year-old farmer. But "we're still concerned about whether the water will overflow," he said. If it does, "how can we stay?"
Michael Perelman
