Mark responds:
Thanks Daniel, there is one easy explanation for their result with the audited sample, which I hinted at in our paper: they could have run at least 500 hundred regressions based on that data set. And probably did. cheers Mark On Sat, Oct 16, 2004 at 09:08:00PM +0100, Daniel Davies wrote: > Absolutely fascinating. My comment from a cursory reading would be that > R&H's proposed method for how the fraud might have been carried out: > > "By putting a known seed-number [to the Carter Center's pseudo-random number > generator -dd] the Electoral Council would know > beforehand which precincts would come up, and could thus decide which > precincts to > leave unaltered." > > this looks like a non-starter given my (cursory) knowledge of PRNG > algorithms. Sitting around trying to get a particular output from a PRNG by > simple brute force trial and error with the inputs is an extraordinarily > thankful task; if the PRNG is a decent one, it is equivalent to trying to > brute-force a DES encryption. > > I do think that the R&H result is quite interesting though; I don't see why > the relationship between signatures and SI votes would be different in the > audited subgroup. I'm always a little bit wary of basing anything important > on t-values, though; maybe if someone (probably not me until I learn a bit > more about Bayesian econometrics) replicated the R&H regression in BUGS or > some similar, we'd see whether the different elasticities were really all > that unlikely. > > dd > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: PEN-L list [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of michael > perelman > Sent: 16 October 2004 19:35 > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: mathematics & Venezuela: The real world? > > > Dear All, > > For those who like econometrics or statistics, here is a simple problem > that is turning out to have significant political implications. It takes > about 20 minutes to read and understand it. For those of you who teach > econometrics or statistics, it makes an excellent problem for an > introductory class -- an exciting real world example where the answer to > a statistical question has real consequences. > > -- > > Michael Perelman > Economics Department > California State University > michael at ecst.csuchico.edu > Chico, CA 95929 > 530-898-5321 > fax 530-898-5901 -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
