(Today's Wall Street Journal, conceding that the Bush administration is reviled by the world's peoples as dangerously arrogant and reckless, suggests that not all of their governments are looking forward to its replacement. It notes that the Russians, Indians, and Israelis have obvious reasons to support the BA's focus on a global "war on terrorism". Others, like the Japanese, Mexican and Central American governments, worry a Democratic government would be more protectionist on trade issues. But even the Iranians, Chinese and French governments wouldn't be dismayed by Bush's reelection, the Journal says. The Chinese presently have a very favourable trade and diplomatic relationship with the US. The Iranians hold the Democrats responsible for sanctions against the country, and are reportedly unconcerned about the Republicans' belligerent rhetoric. And the French and Germans both don't want to have to say no to their ally, Kerry, on Iraq, and think widespread European hatred of Bush helps their push for greater European political integration. The Journal, of course, has an interest in allaying its readers' fears that the administration is isolating America internationally, and understates the concern virtually all governments, except perhaps the Israeli, have about the destabilizing "Bush Doctrine" of unilateral preventative war.)
MG --------------------------------------- Bush Has Unlikely Supporters Some Foreign Nations Root for the Incumbent -- And the Status Quo By MARC CHAMPION in London, CHARLES HUTZLER in Beijing and JAY SOLOMON in New Delhi Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL November 1, 2004; Page A12 Many governments and populations around the globe are rooting for Sen. John Kerry in tomorrow's U.S. presidential election. Less noticed is that for reasons of trade, shared views of the war on terrorism and sheer realpolitik, President Bush has some big and unlikely names in his corner, too. In Russia, Japan and Iran, Mr. Bush has received barely veiled government support for his re-election campaign -- a breach of the usual diplomatic etiquette whereby governments don't comment on other countries' electoral choices. Meanwhile, Chinese, Indian and Mexican leaders are quietly hoping for a Bush win, too, as are Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, officials and analysts say. Mr. Bush's go-it-alone stance on a range of issues, from the Kyoto protocol on climate change to the invasion of Iraq, as well as a personal style often perceived abroad as macho and overly religious, have made him deeply unpopular among citizens in many countries. An opinion poll of 34,000 people in 35 countries published in September by research company Globescan Inc. found majorities in only three countries favoring a Bush victory: the Philippines, Nigeria and Poland. In India and Thailand, the candidates tied. Mr. Kerry was favored in 30 countries, by an average ratio of 2-to-1. Most governments share their populations' hope that a new U.S. leader would be a calming influence on world affairs after the diplomatic tensions, corporate upheavals, terrorist outbreak and wars that have figured prominently in Mr. Bush's tenure. But the exceptions are significant -- and often surprising. Some overseas Bush supporters are motivated primarily by trade concerns. Despite Mr. Bush's own protectionist measures, such as imposing steel tariffs and agriculture subsidies, many governments see Mr. Kerry as the greater threat to international trade owing to his campaign rhetoric on the need to protect American jobs and on outsourcing. Take Mexico. Despite the visceral hostility that opinion polls show many Mexicans feel toward Mr. Bush, some business and government leaders south of the border would prefer another four years of the Texan. He is seen as an ally on Mexico's top two priorities: expanding economic integration with the U.S. through free trade and revising U.S. immigration policy. Mr. Kerry's campaign promises to review existing U.S. free-trade accords frighten Mexico, which has seen its exports boom since 1994's North American Free Trade Agreement. Mr. Kerry also has raised eyebrows further south by pledging to renegotiate the recent Central American Free Trade Agreement -- now awaiting U.S. congressional approval -- in order to strengthen labor and environmental provisions. In Japan, too, Mr. Kerry's stance on trade concerns business leaders, while his proposal to start bilateral talks with North Korea over its nuclear program has rung alarm bells. Japan is one of five nations -- with the U.S., China, Russia and South Korea -- jointly negotiating with North Korea about dismantling its nuclear program. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi created a stir last month when he told reporters, "I'm close to Bush, so I'd like him to do well." He later denied trying to interfere in the election. A couple of weeks ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin made what amounted to a call for Mr. Bush's re-election. "I consider the activities of terrorists in Iraq are not as much aimed at coalition forces but more personally against President Bush," Mr. Putin said, asserting that such terrorists would grow stronger if they were to succeed in securing Mr. Bush's defeat. Washington's focus on fighting terrorism has enabled Mr. Putin to redefine Russia's primarily separatist conflict in Chechnya as chiefly a terrorist issue, reducing attention to human-rights abuses committed by Russian troops. The Kremlin also believes a Kerry administration would resurrect former President Bill Clinton's foreign-policy team, which pushed for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's expansion into Eastern Europe and the 1999 bombing and defeat of Serbia -- considered by Russians a fellow Slav and Christian Orthodox country. "These people are genetically anti-Russian," says Vyacheslav Nikonov, director of the Polity think tank in Moscow. The head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Hasan Rowhani, suggested Tehran, too, would prefer to see the Republicans retain the White House when he told Iranian television last week: "We haven't seen anything good from Democrats." He said that while the Clinton administration introduced sanctions against Iran, the Bush administration has yet to harm Iranian interests. China, meanwhile, has enjoyed a surprisingly smooth relationship with the Bush White House. Washington's preoccupation with Iraq and need for Chinese help with North Korea have allowed Beijing to quietly build diplomatic clout to match its economic heft. Beijing also frets that Mr. Kerry could be tougher on China's trade surplus with the U.S. China isn't totally happy with Mr. Bush, though. In a scathing commentary in today's China Daily, former vice premier Qian Qichen slams the "Bush Doctrine" for advocating that "the U.S. should rule over the whole world with overwhelming force, military force in particular." Mr. Qian blames the U.S.'s current troubles on "its own cocksureness and arrogance." In India, many analysts in New Delhi say the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would quietly embrace a Bush victory, as it could lead to closer military and security ties between the nations. In recent months, Washington lifted sanctions barring the sale of certain dual-use technologies to Indian firms that were blacklisted after India's 1998 nuclear tests. Arms sales from the U.S. to India have surged. Indian analysts fear a Kerry administration could renew the Clinton administration's pressure for India to sign the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. Indian businessmen and officials also have been spooked by Mr. Kerry's public attacks on the outsourcing of services to foreign companies. India has earned roughly $3.6 billion through back-office and call-center work in the fiscal year that ended March 31. The consensus is that Mr. Bush would be less likely to try to legislate against outsourcing. The support for Mr. Bush on specific issues is unlikely to translate into any new stances on the flash-point issue for U.S. allies: whether to provide support in Iraq. "The Russians will still vote against us at the [United Nations] Security Council, and they surely won't send troops to Iraq. Nor will the Indians," says Simon Serfaty, global-security and geostrategy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Mr. Bush has fewer backers in Western Europe. Even British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a key U.S. ally in Iraq who probably will face a general election next spring, might find life easier with Mr. Bush out of the White House; Mr. Blair's support for Mr. Bush is deeply unpopular among his own Labour party. Mr. Blair's office declined to comment on the U.S. election. Nonetheless, some governments in Europe would benefit from a Bush victory, particularly that of Italy's Mr. Berlusconi. He has used a close relationship with Mr. Bush to compensate for his isolation within Europe. Other European leaders, such as French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, generally have steered clear of Mr. Berlusconi, partly because he has been tainted by bribery scandals but also because his massive media holdings have raised questions of potential conflicts of interest. While there is no indication that Messrs. Schroeder or Chirac would prefer a Bush victory, even for them -- leading opponents of the war in Iraq -- there would be a silver lining. For one thing, both governments are concerned that Mr. Kerry would ask them to send troops to Iraq, something they aren't prepared to do. At a May 11 meeting with Richard Holbrooke, a possible candidate for secretary of state in a Kerry administration, Mr. Schroeder asked what Mr. Kerry would do about Iraq, according to a participant at the meeting. "The first thing he would do is invite you and President Chirac to the White House," Mr. Holbrooke replied. "That is what I'm afraid of," Mr. Schroeder responded, the participant said. French officials say Mr. Chirac also has tried to lower expectations of what help he could give a Kerry administration in Iraq. For Mr. Chirac, a Bush victory could make it easier for him to achieve some key goals -- such as unifying Europe as a counterweight to U.S. power -- owing to Mr. Bush's role as a lightning rod for mistrust and antipathy in Europe, says Francois Heisbourg, director of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. "Four more years of Bush, and I suspect there will be a lot more unity in Europe," Mr. Heisbourg says.
