The airlines, their lenders, and policy makers all avoid coming to
grips with the airline problem.  The focus is on cutting pay. while the
main problem lies elsewhere.

   The financial squeeze was evident before 9/11, but that event both
obscured and worsened the problem, with the current spike in fuel price
adding to the woes.

   The economic boom of the 1990s permitted the airlines and new
operators to misunderstand their industry.  They grew rapidly in a
competitive race, and filled the additional planes with low prices for
holiday travelers.  Profitability was maintained by repeated increases
in prices to business travelers.  The latter, during the boom, kept
flying and kept paying.  That willingness disappeared in the economic
slump during Dubya's first term.  The most affluent, who could have kept
paying, did, but switched the revenue to charter and time-share flying
as the unpleasantness and delays of the "security" regime continually
and continuosly increased.

   This is an industry that must permit the suppliers to cooperate in
pricing and selection of volume to produce.  Unregulated, the
bankruptcies will continue.

    Upstarts like Jet Blue and some mentioned in the story below can
prosper for a period but eventually they too will made profitless, or
almost so, by selling a commodity.  Nobody wants to be in a commodity
business -- as farmers know only too well.  Leather seats and individual
TVs can differentiate, but only until they are copied.

   There is no fix.  Nobody in the administration or the congress
willingly will admit that competition doesn't work for this industry.
That would be almost like saying that the USA was wrong in Iraq and
Vietnam.  So there is no fix.

   The airlines and lenders will continue to ask at the employees to
fund the shareholders.  Think Wal-Mart.

      Gene Coyle




Eubulides wrote:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/07/business/07air.html?oref=login
December 7, 2004
Lenders and U.S. Tighten Screws on Struggling Airlines
By MICHELINE MAYNARD

In the airline industry's dark months after the September 2001 attacks,
the federal government, banks, aircraft lenders and others came forward to
help, giving the wounded companies plenty of leeway in the face of
extraordinary circumstances.

But three years later, the benevolence is gone.

In a form of tough love that is quickly spreading, these same backers are
putting the clamps on the still-troubled airlines, particularly those
operating under bankruptcy protection. The backers are giving chief
executives at United Airlines, US Airways and ATA Airlines their marching
orders: enforce strict timetables, conserve cash, reduce spending and
eliminate jobs - or else.

"There is simply no patience for the industry not to fix its own house,"
said Michael Palumbo, the chief financial officer at Delta Air Lines,
which barely averted bankruptcy this fall by reaching deals with pilots,
lenders and other financial partners.

Executives already have their hands full with stiff competition and high
fuel prices. Collectively, airlines are expected to lose $5.5 billion this
year alone, on top of the $30 billion lost since 2000.

"The whole world is starting to cave in on them now," said Kevin P.
Mitchell, chairman of the Business Travel Coalition, which represents
corporate travel groups and business travelers.

Where once the idea of losing an airline was unthinkable, both the
government and lenders now seem perfectly willing to let that happen. The
mood swing was foretold in June, when a federal loan board turned down an
application by United Airlines that the airline had thought was a sure
bet. Since then, lenders have sat on their hands, watching the company
take a chainsaw to its operations, refusing to commit until the airline's
final shape is known.

Aircraft lenders, who did their part after the attacks by loosening the
terms of some deals, are tightening up again.

What is different now, experts say, is the growth of markets outside the
United States, like Europe and Asia, where new airlines are forming,
attracting passengers and expanding, making them far more attractive to
lenders and airplane leaseholders.

"The market for aircraft is dramatically better around the world than it
was 18 months ago and certainly two years ago," said Henry Hubschman,
president of GE Capital Aviation Services, the industry's most powerful
aircraft financing company.

About 49.1 percent of planes used by the domestic airlines are leased,
rather than owned, according to Back Aviation Solutions, a consulting
firm. That gives leaseholders a voice to which the airlines must pay heed.

United Airlines found that out the day after Thanksgiving, when it had to
go to court to temporarily stop a group of leaseholders from confiscating
14 big jets. Had the leaseholders been successful, United could have been
forced to cancel flights during the busiest travel season of the year.

Lawyers for the group did not comment. United, which won its bid to block
the move, said the leaseholders wanted to force the company to pay higher
rates than other companies paid.

A judge will consider the issue next week.

But Mr. Hubschman of GE Capital Aviation said, "We can flex our muscles by
moving our assets."

His company did just that last month at US Airways, when it struck a deal
to take back 25 planes it had financed.

That freed up $140 million for US Airways, which will use it for a fleet
of regional jets. But GE Capital Aviation also demanded that US Airways
put all of its restructuring plan into place by mid-January and be out of
bankruptcy by the end of June, the first time any such timetable had been
mapped out.

US Airways is in its second round of bankruptcy protection in two years.
And it is warning that it could liquidate next year unless it can make
deep cuts in both operations and union contracts; that would be the third
such round of concessions for employees.

GE Capital Aviation is not the airline's only overseer. It is operating
under strict cash limits set by the federal Air Transportation
Stabilization Board, created to oversee $10 billion in loan guarantees
that were part of a post-Sept. 11 bailout plan.

By filing for bankruptcy, US Airways defaulted on its $717 million loan
balance, which is secured by its cash, airplanes, routes and airport
gates.

The board agreed the airline could use its cash. But representatives of
the board, along with other lenders, must decide soon whether to extend
the arrangement beyond mid-January.

The loan board has a similar cash operating deal with ATA Airlines, the
industry's 10th-largest company, which filed for Chapter 11 protection in
October. ATA, a low-fare carrier, owes $140 million on its federal loan
package.

But as with US Airways, ATA has more to worry about than just the loan
board. As it went into bankruptcy, ATA cut a deal to sell its gates in
Chicago, New York and Washington to another low-fare company, AirTran.

Under bankruptcy law, however, the court must entertain competing bids. So
ATA now faces the prospect that it might be acquired by America West
Airlines, which wants all of the airline, or that its gates in Chicago
could go to Southwest Airlines, its biggest competitor there. The bids are
due by Friday and will be unsealed on Dec. 16.

Until then, the company is in limbo, an uncomfortable position for its
chief executive, J. George Mikelsons, who founded ATA as a travel company
in Indianapolis more than 30 years ago. In an interview in his office
there last week, Mr. Mikelsons, 67, said that he thought airlines would
have bounced back long before now.

"What has happened to this industry is unprecedented. Nobody thought it
would be this bad for this long," Mr. Mikelsons said. If he loses control
of the airline, he said, "I will feel like I sold my child into slavery."

Mr. Mitchell of the Business Travel Coalition said the government, lenders
and leaseholders were "backing management farther and father into a
corner."

"They're not really running the business, they're playing defense," Mr.
Mitchell said.

On the offense, Mr. Hubschman says he wishes he could take more planes
back from US Airways and its competitors. His company has found customers
for 10 of the former US Airways aircraft, all outside the United States,
proof that the company's activism is working to its advantage.

"We have wonderful demand in places around the world," Mr. Hubschman said.



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