At 10:21 PM +0000 1/5/05, Daniel Davies wrote:
Very much caution on that figure of 200,000, I would suggest; it's
no better founded than original estimates of "two or three
thousand". It would be equivalent to about 3% of the adult male
population of Iraq. In fact, given that there are unlikely to be
any Kurds in that 200k, the participation rate might be even higher.
This just doesn't seem likely to me, and the possibility that a
police chief would exaggerate the size of the problem he is faced
with to try and blag a bigger budget, does.
I'm sure that 200,000 is just a ballpark figure, merely a way of
saying that the other side is much bigger than what Washington has
pretended.
That said, I won't be surprised if more than 200,000 are involved in
the guerrilla insurgency in some fashion (keep in mind that most
insurgents are part-time fighters).
* Before the invasion began, the Iraqi military (including elite
forces like the Republican Guard) had about 500,000 active-duty
soldiers and additional 6 million trained Iraqis in reserve. The
Ba'ath Party had roughly 1.2 million members. They are two big
(overlapping) sources of potential recruits.
* Iraq went through many internal and external wars, so many Iraqis,
including those who were not in the military or subject to the draft
when the invasion began, have combat experience.
* Then, there are (overlapping) tribal, religious, and neighborhood
nexuses that aren't limited to former military and/or Ba'ath Party
members.
Also, it probably isn't just adult men who are involved in guerrilla
insurgency. I'm sure adult women and teenagers of both sexes are
just as capable of doing reconnaissance, making and planting IEDs,
offering logistical support, etc. as adult men.
--
Yoshie
* Critical Montages: <http://montages.blogspot.com/>
* "Proud of Britain": <http://www.proudofbritain.net/ > and
<http://www.proud-of-britain.org.uk/>
