Yes, the US cannot export its way out of the trade
deficit - partly because the problem is not a lack of American exports. Since
1987 the growth of its exports, in volume terms, has already been growing faster
than EACH of the other members of the G-7 - see data below from OECD
Economic Outlook No. 76, Dec, 2004, Appendix table #28) The problem is
its import levels; it could offset SOME of the imports by import
replacement, but only some and at a great cost to the world
economy.
On the other hand, note that it is not necessary
for the US to correct the trade deficit to calm financial markets (which are in
any case not panicking in spite of the nervousness some people are expressing).
It is only necessary that the deficit stop rising and start slowly falling
- which IS possible. Moreover, we need to recognize that trade deficits
mean something distinct in the context of empire; in the late 70s
people were freaking at any deficit, yet almost a quarter century of US
trade deficits have now been tolerated and accepted because financial markets
learned that this was possible (re the US).
I think the real problem will instead emerge
re the fiscal deficit where the class interests are clearer (correction of
the deficit translating into social cutbacks). And then the question will
be, as noted by author below, whether the working class will finally respond at
a new level or just take more shit. The issue, in short, is not so much
what will happen re the twin deficits as whether the working class will limit
capital's room for manouvre. If it does not, there will not be a crisis, or at
least not one that means much politically.
Growth
in
|
Exports by volume avg
|
1987-2004 | |
| United States | 7.0% | |
| Canada | 5.9% | |
| France | 5.6% | |
| Japan | 5.4% | |
| Germany | 5.2% | |
| United Kingdom | 5.0% | |
| Italy | 4.6% | |
|
|
||
|
|
||
----- Original Message -----
From: "Yoshie Furuhashi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, January 30, 2005 3:31 PM
Subject: [PEN-L] Deficits, the Dollar, and
IEDs
> man, is now betting against the dollar. "I'm short the dollar," says
> Gates. "The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down." Will the dollar be one
> day the target of attacks by hedge funds? Recently the dollar
> rallied a bit, but short-term fluctuations aside, the dollar has
> nowhere to go but down. Gradually or suddenly and precipitously? It
> may be possible to engineer gradual devaluation of the dollar and
> stimulate US export, shrinking the US trade deficit, but it turns out
> that "the US does not have adequate manufacturing capacity to
> eliminate the external deficit," according to David Hale. That means
> that the US power elite will demand that the US working class reduce
> consumption to haul the multinational ruling class out of the abyss
> of the US current-account deficit, at the same time as forcing the US
> working class to make greater and greater sacrifices as IED fodders,
> sinking further into the quagmire in Iraq. Can American workers fight
> back?) -- FULL TEXT:
> <http://montages.blogspot.com/2005/01/deficits-dollar-and-ieds.html>.
> --
> Yoshie
>
> * Critical Montages: <http://montages.blogspot.com/>
> * Greens for Nader: <http://greensfornader.net/>
> * Bring Them Home Now! <http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/>
> * OSU-GESO: <http://www.osu-geso.org/>
> * Calendars of Events in Columbus:
> <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/calendar.html>,
> <http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php>, & <http://www.cpanews.org/>
> * Student International Forum: <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/>
> * Committee for Justice in Palestine: <http://www.osudivest.org/>
> * Al-Awda-Ohio: <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio>
> * Solidarity: <http://www.solidarity-us.org/>
>
