On 8/17/05, Shane Mage <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >I asked: > >> >if we've gone over the Hubbert hill, how come real gasoline prices are > >> >actually _lower_ now in the U.S. than in 1980? > > > >Shane Mage replies. > >> 1980 was an "outlier," a "spike," caused by the Iranian revolution > >> and its manipulation by the oil giants. > > > >How do we know that we're currently not living through another outlier? > > There will surely be major fluctuations in the price of oil, but the > essence(pun intended) of the matter is that 2005 prices reflect > no sudden supply disruption, can scarcely be ascribed to manipulation, > and coincide with a major secular increase in energy demand.
Cannot recent trends of real oil prices be explained by a big increase in world demand (led by China) hitting short-term supply constraints? The war against Iraq and other disruption in the middle east contribute. Blips need not be due to manipulation. for what it's worth, I used Excel to calculate the "real energy price" for the US from 1959 to 2004. (Data are from the ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, table B-60.) results: using XL's graphing facility, the linear and exponential trends over this period were slightly downward. The logarithmic and power trends were slighly upward, with most of the increase happening in the early 1960s. The 6th degree polynominal shows lower real prices in the 2000s than in the 1960s. -- Jim Devine "Blessed are the pizza-makers."
