Re: [PEN-L] quotation du jour

[paul phillips]

I think there is a serious misconception about so-called "peak oil"  -- we are not "running out of oil", but rather that demand is outrunning supply of cheap oil and/or that increasing demand can not be matched by increased supply (see Chavez's comments.)  As a shorthand, we are running out of *cheap oil*.  This has two consequences. One, that new supplies of energy have a lower net energy output (e.g. conventional light oil produces 10 to 20 bbls of oil output per barrel of oil equivalent input.  Synthetic crude from the tar sands requires one bbl of oil equivalent of energy for every two bbls of output.) Second , of course is that this energy is much more expensive whether it is in the form of oil or of other energy sources such as coal which, not only is more expensive and has a lower net energy output, but is also much more polluting (and a major addition to global warming gases) and can't be used for that most important use in the developed world -- transportation, either car/truck or airplanes.      It is fairly easy to see how the end of cheap oil can be used as an organizing tool IMHO -- just look at the protests, truckers strikes, collapse of airlines, car parts manufacturers, etc. which is a byproduct of rising energy prices, or the political furor over rising pump prices or home heating costs (natural gas has risen 400 per cent in Canada).  Today, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate to combat 'inflation' caused by rising energy costs.  When rising transportation costs and production costs in China start to be incorporated into retail prices at Walmart, to maintain Walmarts profits, and real wages continue to fall, I think there will be a real opportunity to organize.  The market will ration oil use through rising prices and thereby enforce conservation -- but on the backs of the workers.  It seems to me that if we ignore this issue and don't explain it to the public so they see where the ultimate responsibility lies and understand that the capitalist system only makes the problem intractable, or if we deny the problem, we are courting disaster on a very large scale. Paul Phillips Carrol Cox wrote: Jim Devine wrote: right. I think it may be a _good thing_ if we're running out of oil, since the burning of hydrocarbons encourages global warming. There is a great deal of coal, perhaps unfortunately. I don't think we can depend either on the shortage of fuel or on capitalist states or corporations to seriously attempt to control global warming, assuming that it isn't too late already. But I also am sceptical that either peak oil or global warming are issues around which political agitation, mobilization, and organizing are possible. We need to organize around other more promising issues and incorporate the issue of global warming into a politics initiated on other grounds. I'm not sure what those other grounds can be -- the Endless War of current capitalism? the attack on social security (which will emerge every four years, under either DP or RP administrations)? long hours of work? ???? Carrol

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