I'm taking hiatus for a bit to visit my not so well father in N Carolina. Probably relocating there in December... Paradigm shifts... I hate that.
Leigh Shaping the peak of world oil production The bell curve has a sharp crest, and you can't see it coming. Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC World Oil Magazine, Vol. 226 No. 10 October 2005 http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/112105_world_stories.shtml#5 In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. To gain insight into the potential time-varying shape of world oil production peaking, this author examined regions that have already peaked. Unencumbered regions and countries were considered. All had significant peak production and all are past their peak. Their experience shows that the onset of peaking can occur quite suddenly and is not obvious, even a year prior to the event. The peaking of world conventional oil production may or may not follow previous trends, but these observations may be valuable for planning. World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum - a peak - and then decline. The timing is uncertain; some think it could occur within a matter of years, others in a decade or two. 1 - 11 Without a major effort to mitigate related oil shortages starting well before the onset of peaking, the economic consequences worldwide will be dire. 12 By conventional oil, we mean oils of higher gravity that make up over 95% of current world production. The likely world oil production profile before, during and after world conventional oil peaking is almost certainly not predictable, because it will be a function of an array of unknowable factors: a.. World economic development prior to peaking b.. Oil prices a decade or more prior to peaking c.. The application of advanced technology in the world's largest oil fields d.. Damage and past mismanagement of large oil fields e.. Oil supply-demand expectations a decade or more before peaking f.. Concession and contract policies affecting outside investment g.. Political stability in regions with the largest production before peaking h.. Geology of major oil producing regions. A scenario analysis involving these and other variables might be possible, but it is likely to be so complex as to be of questionable value. BELL CURVE Modeling of oil production peaking is often based on a bell curve (also known as a normal or logistic curve) an approximation of oil production as a function of time. This approach was utilized by M. King Hubbert in 1956 in his forecast of US oil production peaking. 13 Fig. 1 shows the 30-yr interval near the apex of a bell-curve that was fitted to US Lower 48 states conventional oil production by Deffeyes. 14 Production data follow the curve closely from 1910 - 1960 and from 1980 - 2003 (not shown here). The curve indicates a peak in 1976, while the actual peak occurred in 1970, as Hubbert predicted. [More] http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/112105_world_stories.shtml#5 Leigh
