Dear everyone on PEN-L but CS, Here is a recent paper of mine I submitted to SSRN a short while ago:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=901924 I just updated the paper so it is not currently available from there until it is approved. But I expect that it will be avialiable sometime tomorrow. It is actually an econometric paper proposing a new parametric estimator for multi-state duration models but the application part of the paper is about the likehood of recessions in the US as signalled by the slope of the yield curve. You may find it relevant to this topic. By the way Tom, did I not tell you before that you should be careful with making bets about the possibility of what may happen a century from now, for otherwise, you may get called "Chicken Little?" By the way, the person who called Patrick Bond and I "Chicken Little" a while ago is the same person who called you "Chicken Little." Obviously, he liked the movie a lot. Best, Sabri
