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Nepal polls possible in a year: Analysts
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1696354,001300980002.htm

Agence France-Presse

Kathmandu, May 12, 2006

Nepal's new government plans to hold polls for a body to redraft the 
Constitution within a year but inter-party rows and problematic peace talks 
may interfere, analysts and politicians said on Friday.

The new government has matched a rebel ceasefire and met a key Maoist demand
to hold elections to form a constituent assembly to redraft Nepal's
constitution that will decide the monarchy's future.

"The constituent assembly election will be within a year. First, we will go
into dialogue and after settlement with the Maoists they could be included
in a new government," works minister Gopal Man Shrestha said on Thursday.
But "without the Maoists disarming, we won't go to a constituent assembly,"
he added.

The Maoists, who have waged a decade-long insurgency to topple the king and
install a Communist rule, have said they are willing to join a new national
army but have not committed yet to disarming.

Fourteen months of direct royal rule ended in late April after weeks of mass
pro-democracy protests backed by the Maoists forced King Gyanendra to
reinstate Parliament.

The rebels and government are expected to enter peace talks soon, but the
multi-party government has yet to name a peace talks team and around 15
cabinet positions remain unfilled.

The timeframe for the constituent assembly depends on the outcome of the
slated peace talks, another minister told the agency on Friday.

"We should not speculate about this as it depends on the speed of the peace
negotiations with the Maoists," said Finance Minister Ram Sharam Mahat.
"But if everything goes as fast as we expect, it could be possible within a
year," he said, while warning "there's a lot of homework to be done."

Political analyst Lok Raj Baral said squabbling among the three major
parties, which hold six cabinet posts between them, could throw a spanner in
the works.

"I am doubtful about the present government's behaviour as the parties are
engaged in wrangling about the formation of the government and choosing a
(parliamentary) speaker," Baral said.

"If this wrangling continues and they regularly fail to reach agreement, it
(the constituent assembly elections) will take more than one year," said
Baral.

However, even if the constituent assembly formation drags on, the Maoists
are unlikely to return to violence, Baral said.

"I don't think the Maoists should walk out of the peace talks as they have
already accepted the 12-point memorandum of understanding in which they said
they would accept any outcome of the constituent assembly elections," the
professor said.

Once foes, the political parties and Maoists entered a loose alliance late
last year and agreed on the memorandum that remains the framework of
negotiations.

Two previous attempts in 2001 and 2003 at a negotiated peace with the rebels
failed and the country was plunged back into conflict.

At least 12,500 people have been killed since the rebels began their
"people's war" in 1996.

© HT Media Ltd. 2006.

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