But not THAT aghast...
"The European Union, with Italy and Britain, as former colonial powers,
to the fore, will probably try to shore up the transitional government
in Baidoa while coming to terms with the Islamists in Mogadishu."
[Not to forget: Italy, Tanzania (and other African nations), Norway, and
Sweden]
First: More about that pesky little UN Arms Embargo...
[The AU want's a piece of the action (and most likely a piece of Somali
territory)]:
AU calls for end to arms embargo to allow for force in Somalia
Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Jun 16, 2006, 19:00 GMT
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/africa/printer_1173212.php
Addis Ababa - The African Union appealed Friday for an exemption to the
arms embargo imposed against Somalia to facilitate the deployment in the
troubled country of a force from a group of other African nations.
The AU\'s Peace and Security Council welcomed the decision by the
countries in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to
dispatch a peacekeeping force to Somalia to help the transitional
government maintain law and order.
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan and Somalia are all
members of IGAD, which was founded in 1986 to tackle common problems
around drought but has since become the vehicle for dialogue on regional
security and politics.
The decision was made earlier in the week in the Kenyan capital Nairobi
by an extraordinary session of he IGAD Council of Ministers. The AU
reiterated its support for the deployment of the force, to be known as
IGASOM.
The AU said the initiative being taken by IGAD was in line with its
central role as the regional organization of the countries in the Horn
of Africa \'in the efforts aimed at sustaining the peace and
reconciliation process in Somalia.\'
The AU said it had requested that the UN Security Council grant an
exemption to the arms embargo imposed on Somalia.
#33#
The Economist:
Guess who's running it now
Jun 8th 2006 | NAIROBI
From The Economist print edition
http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7041247
Might a victory for Somalia's assorted Islamists offer some hope for its
people?
THE speed with which Islamist militias this week at last seized control
of Mogadishu, Somalia's ravaged capital, was telling. Gunmen loyal to
secular warlords fled without much of a fight, losing a battle not just
of territory but also, it seems, of hearts and minds. The Islamists have
tightened their grip on Balcad, a strategic town 30km (19 miles) north
of Mogadishu, and were advancing on Jowhar, one of the warlords' last
redoubts, some 90km north of the capital. Meanwhile, Somalia's impotent
and fractured transitional government, recognised by most of the rest of
the world but with little sway over Somalia, is nervously camped out in
the dusty town of Baidoa, some 250km to the north-west.
“The big battle for Mogadishu is over,” says a seasoned Somalia-watcher
based in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, the main hub of exiles and
diplomats trying to make sense of the latest chaotic events. “But the
battle for the rest of Somalia is just beginning.” The question
uppermost in such minds is whether Somalia—or at least large swathes of
it—will now become a training ground and haven for al-Qaeda types, as
some American officials fear, or whether, by contrast, a comprehensive
victory may offer a chance of stability, whoever the victors are and
however authoritarian they may be.
At first glance, the Islamist win is a big bonus for al-Qaeda. Islamists
already enjoy support across Somalia's intricate but crucial clan lines.
Many children in Mogadishu are already being educated in Islamist
schools, with the usual infusion of bellicose propaganda. Islamist
militias, under the control of a Union of Islamic Courts, have a unity
of purpose reminiscent of Afghanistan's Taliban, which many Afghans at
first welcomed in the hope that ruthless authority was better than
deadly chaos; there are signs that Somalis in Mogadishu may, at any rate
at first, take a similar view. But the new Islamist courts are unbending
in their application of sharia law. A recent court verdict allowed a boy
to stab his father's murderer to death, in head and chest, in front of a
large, cheering crowd.
By contrast, Mogadishu's secular warlords look busted. They formed a
self-proclaimed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and
Counter-Terrorism earlier this year, with the aim of turning back the
Islamists' influence and catching one or two al-Qaeda suspects who might
have been hiding in Mogadishu. That was enough to win them the backing
of the CIA, which, say several sources, funnelled money to them, with
disastrous results. “Everyone was aghast at what the Americans were
doing,” says a European diplomat. Some in the State Department and the
CIA privately bemoan what they see as both the half-heartedness of the
operation and a failure to foresee its messy results. An American
diplomat in Nairobi responsible for overseeing Somali politics was
removed from his post for speaking out. Some of his dissenting reports
did not, apparently, reach Washington.
One result is that the United States is more unpopular than ever in
Mogadishu. American flags are being burned even in quieter parts of the
city; anti-American rhetoric is finding a wider audience. Memories have
been rekindled of 1993, when 18 American peacekeepers were killed in
Mogadishu after the downing of two helicopters and several hundred
Somalis were killed, mostly by the Americans, during the rescue attempt.
America has also been widely blamed, both inside Somalia and among exile
groups and diplomats in nearby countries, for egging on the warlords who
have been accused of sparking the gun battles that have flared on and
off in northern Mogadishu for the past month. Some 350 fighters and
civilians have been killed, and at least 2,000 wounded. One of the two
hospitals in Mogadishu being run by the International Committee of the
Red Cross, which is struggling to bring in medical supplies, has been
taken over by a warlord's militia.
There is some hope, however, that a comprehensive victory of the
Islamists in the south may at least restore order and perhaps give
Somalis a sustained period of respite for the first time since General
Siad Barre's Soviet-backed regime collapsed in 1991 after 30 years in
power. If food, medicine and cash can now be brought in, Somalis may at
last be able to start rebuilding their devastated capital.
Much depends on how the Islamists behave and how they are received,
outside Somalia and within. So far, they have apparently been acting
with restraint, promising to restore law and order, limiting the number
of checkpoints and reopening the port. Reports from the capital say that
many of its people, even secular-minded ones, reckon the Islamists look
less brutal and greedy than the warlords they have displaced. And they
are keenly trying to distance themselves from al-Qaeda. In a letter sent
this week to embassies in Nairobi, they strongly deny harbouring
terrorists, disavow terrorism, and invite diplomats to come and see for
themselves.
They have also hinted at a willingness to negotiate with the feeble
transitional government in Baidoa, perhaps offering it three or four
cabinet posts, including those previously held by the secular warlords
sacked for their part in the recent fighting in Mogadishu. As part of
such an accommodation, the Islamists would probably have to agree not to
impose sharia law on Somalia, at any rate under a transitional
government of national unity. Nobody, for the moment, seems to be
mentioning elections or democracy.
If a modicum of peace did break out, Somalia would still be a patchwork
state—but it might become a more or less functioning one. The recent
violence, ending in victory for the Islamists, has been concentrated on
Mogadishu, in the country's southern third. Much of the rest of Somalia,
however, has been steadier. To the north, the self-proclaimed breakaway
state of Somaliland (once British Somaliland, the rest of Somalia being
run by Italy until its defeat in the second world war) has been fairly
well governed. It has a chance of seceding, especially if it drops its
claim to a chunk of Somalia's autonomous north-eastern bit, known as
Puntland, which may have oil. Several towns elsewhere, such as Kismayu
in the south, have been pretty well self-governing. It is not clear
whether the Islamists would ever accept Somaliland's secession; perhaps not.
If their initial restraint is not reciprocated, the Islamists could yet
turn radical. Whatever the new rulers say, international terrorists may
seek a haven in their domain. Jihadist terrorists of Somali origin have
been active round the world, including Britain; two suspects arrested
last week in Canada were born in Somalia (see article). And the
Americans may try to revive the secular warlords, using Ethiopia as a
conduit for cash and guns.
The Islamists may also quarrel among themselves. Somali clan rivalries
have a habit of pulling Somalia's governments apart, however unifying
the call of Islam. There may also be rows over how to deal with the
lucrative trade in qat, a narcotic leaf that many Somalis chew and which
is flown into Mogadishu daily from Kenya and Ethiopia, perhaps
accounting for as much as half the city's cash economy.
The European Union, with Italy and Britain, as former colonial powers,
to the fore, will probably try to shore up the transitional government
in Baidoa while coming to terms with the Islamists in Mogadishu. On the
whole, they think America would be wise to abandon the warlords and
spend cash building up the Somali economy wherever there is a bit of
order. The Somalis also want the Americans to press Saudi Arabia to lift
its ban on direct imports of Somali livestock. Food and medicine is even
more badly needed to fend off the drought afflicting the Horn of Africa.
Some UN agencies say that 10,000 southern Somalis a month may otherwise
die. The fighting in Mogadishu has raised prices of basic food and fuel
by 30%.
Until now, insecurity has made it hard to provide any aid by land or
sea. Foreign aid workers have been killed or kidnapped. Extortion has
been rife. The UN has received only $135m of the $326m it says Somalia
needs merely to keep its people alive. No one knows whether an Islamist
government running the south will make the job easier. With luck, it might.
#33#
