Just submitted a paper to Econometrica on this today, that is, that the probability of a recession coming is increasing.
Take a look at here: https://www.treasury.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/yield.shtml As will be seen from the above web site, the inversion of the term structure of interest rates is getting worse by the day, suggesting that a recession is about to follow soon if it goes like this. Don't believe the denialists. They have always said that this time is different and always failed. Best, Sabri __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com
