Just Foreign Policy News August 25, 2006 Highlights: The Jerusalem Post suggests that the US will not attack Iran militarily until 2008, near the end of Bush's term. Connecticut Republican Rep. Christopher Shays, formerly a supporter of the Iraq war, now calls for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. No word yet from Vice President Cheney on whether Rep. Shays' call for a timetable for withdrawal will "embolden al-Qaeda types." Israel says that countries that don't have diplomatic relations with it shouldn't be allowed to contribute troops to a UN peacekeeping force. By this logic, the Lebanese military should also be excluded south of the Litani river. (Lebanon also does not have diplomatic relations with Israel.)
Summary: U.S. Politics New York Democratic Senate candidate Jonathan Tasini continues to criticize his opponent, Sen. Hillary Clinton for supporting the Iraq War, and for refusing to debate him. Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), once an ardent supporter of the war in Iraq, said yesterday that the Bush administration should set a time frame for withdrawing U.S. troops. He added that most of the withdrawal could take place next year. A New York man was arrested yesterday on charges that he conspired to support a terrorist group by providing U.S. residents with access to Hezbollah's satellite channel, al-Manar. An ACLU spokeswoman says the prosecution "raises serious First Amendment concerns." Iran Juan Cole says the Republican Congressional report on Iran is "riddled with errors" and calls the assertion that "Iran is currently enriching uranium to weapons grade using a 164-machine centrifuge cascade at this facility in Natanz" an "outright lie." Israel is watching reaction to Iran's continued refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, with some high-level officials arguing that Israel "may have to go it alone," says the Jerusalem Post. US military action would probably not occur until the spring or summer of 2008, a few months before Bush leaves office, the Post says. The low-key formal reaction from the US and its European allies to Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment is a public relations strategy intended to make the West appear patient and measured, the New York Times reports. Russia rejected Friday any talk now of sanctions against Iran and France warned against conflict with Tehran, raising doubts whether it will face swift penalties for not halting nuclear work by an August 31 deadline. Iraq Iraq's most prominent Shiite religious leader has urged government ministers and members of Parliament to refrain from taking trips abroad and to focus on improving the lives of ordinary citizens. British troops abandoned a major base in southern Iraq on Thursday, a move that anti-occupation cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called the first expulsion of U.S.-led coalition forces from an Iraqi urban center. Lebanon The State Department is investigating whether Israel's use of American-made cluster bombs in southern Lebanon violated agreements with the US that restrict when it can employ such weapons. The investigation began after reports that three types of American cluster munitions have been found in many areas of southern Lebanon and were responsible for civilian casualties. An opinion poll in Israel has suggested that a majority of Israelis want Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to resign over the conduct of the recent war in Lebanon. The poll showed 63% of Israelis saying Olmert should go, and a majority saying they wanted the defence minister and the military chief of staff to resign. Although nearly all of the roughly 900,000 refugees who fled the monthlong war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas have returned, fully a third cannot move back into their family homes, aid agencies say. The homes are ruined or are too dangerous to inhabit because of unexploded cluster bombs, which have killed 11 people and wounded 43 since the cease-fire began. Afghanistan Eight civilians, including a child, were killed in an operation by American forces in eastern Afghanistan on Thursday, an Afghan police official said. US forces acknowledged killing a child and injuring a woman but said the seven men also killed were "Qaeda facilitators" who had opened fire on them as they approached a compound. Mexico The Center for Economic and Policy Research says Mexico's handling of the recount raises questions about the lack of transparency in the recount and the election. CEPR recently published an analysis of Mexico's recounted ballots. In this issue: U.S. Politics 1) Tasini Tackles Underdog Challenge 2) Shays Urges Iraq Withdrawal 3) New Yorker Arrested for Providing Hezbollah TV Channel Iran 4) Republican Congressional Report on Iran Riddled With Errors 5) Israel May 'Go it Alone' against Iran 6) In Muted Response to Iran, U.S. and Allies Seek Edge 7) Foes Say Tehran Builds Fast Uranium Centrifuges 8) Russia Rejects Sanctions Against Iran Iraq 9) Shiite Leader Urges Iraqi Politicians to Stay Home and Work Harder 10) British Leave Iraqi Base; Militia Supporters Jubilant: Some Troops Will Reposition to Border With Iran Lebanon 11) Inquiry Opened Into Israeli Use of U.S. Bombs 12) Chirac doubts Lebanon force size 13) Lebanese and Aid Groups Find Dangers in the Rubble 14) France Offers Many More Troops for Lebanon Afghanistan 15) 8 Killed in Raid by U.S. Forces in Afghanistan Mexico 16) Was the Mexican Election Stolen? Questions Raised Over Results
From Preliminary Recount
Contents: U.S. Politics 1) Tasini Tackles Underdog Challenge Presses bid to oust Clinton in primary Mark Sommer, Buffalo News, Friday, August 25, 2006 http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0825-03.htm Jonathan Tasini came to Buffalo Thursday, criticizing Sen. Hillary Clinton for supporting the Iraq War. The Democrat and labor movement activist renewed calls for a debate with Clinton. Tasini said he believes the senator's voting record in support of the war is out of step with most Democrats in the state. "I believe the war was foolish, illegal, immoral - it should never have been fought. It cost the lives of 2,600 wonderful American men and women, tens of thousands of Iraqis, destroyed a country and probably left us with a legacy of anger from the Muslim world that could go on for, potentially, generations," Tasini said. Tasini said he favors legislation in the House that calls for a "safe and immediate withdrawal of troops," who would be replaced by an international security force. The self-described "internationalist" criticized Clinton's support for the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he said has ravaged upstate New York. As part of his economic plan, Tasini would push for single-payer health insurance. Tasini, who led the National Writers Union for 13 years, was born in the United States. His father was born in what is now Israel, and his mother fled Poland to escape the Holocaust. He has criticized Israel's air war in Lebanon as "disproportionate," a charge leveled Friday by Amnesty International. "Hillary Clinton is not a friend of Israel. A true friend of Israel knows when to speak up and say I love you but you're wrong," Tasini said. 2) Shays Urges Iraq Withdrawal A Former War Backer, GOP Congressman Calls for Timetable Anushka Asthana, Washington Post, Friday, August 25, 2006; A03 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401631.html Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), once an ardent supporter of the war in Iraq, said yesterday that the Bush administration should set a time frame for withdrawing U.S. troops. He added that most of the withdrawal could take place next year. Shays, who faces a tough reelection campaign because of his previous support for President Bush's war policies, made his comments after completing his 14th trip to Iraq this week. He said he found a "noticeable lack of political will" among Iraqis "to move in what I would call a timely fashion" and concluded that Iraqi officials would act with greater urgency if the US this fall set a timetable for withdrawal. Diane Farrell, Shays's Democratic challenger, said: "I think it is unfortunate it took him 14 trips and three years to recognize that Iraq has been in a constant state of turmoil since the day that Baghdad fell." [The article does not explore whether Vice President Cheney thinks that Rep. Shays' call for a timetable for US withdrawal will give comfort to "al-Qaeda types" -JFP.] 3) New Yorker Arrested for Providing Hezbollah TV Channel Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Friday, August 25, 2006; A10 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401461.html A New York man was arrested yesterday on charges that he conspired to support a terrorist group by providing U.S. residents with access to Hezbollah's satellite channel, al-Manar. Javed Iqbal runs HDTV Corp., a company that provides satellite television transmissions to cable operators, private companies, government organizations and individual customers. A paid FBI confidential informant told law enforcement officials in February that Iqbal's company was selling "satellite television service, including access to al-Manar broadcasts." The informant then had a recorded conversation during which Iqbal offered al-Manar broadcasts along with other Arab television stations. The U.S. Treasury Department in March designated al-Manar a "global terrorist entity" and a media arm of the Hezbollah terrorist network. The designation froze al-Manar's assets in the United States and prohibited any transactions between Americans and al-Manar. Iqbal's attorney, Mustapha Ndanusa, said yesterday that the accusations against his client are "completely ridiculous." Ndanusa added that he is not aware of another instance in which someone was accused of violating U.S. laws by enabling access to a news outlet. Donna Lieberman of the ACLU said she is "deeply troubled" that a television distributor is being prosecuted for the content of a broadcaster. Such a prosecution, she said, "raises serious First Amendment concerns." She said she thinks that the law under which Iqbal has been charged has a First Amendment exception for news communications. Iran 4) Republican Congressional Report on Iran Riddled With Errors Juan Cole, Informed Comment, Friday, August 25, 2006 http://www.juancole.com/#115649640863202167 Here is what the professionals are saying about the Republican-dominated Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy report on Iran that slams US intelligence professionals for poor intelligence on Iran: The report demonstrates that these Republicans have poor intelligence . . . on Iran. On page 9, the report alleges that "Iran is currently enriching uranium to weapons grade using a 164-machine centrifuge cascade at this facility in Natanz." This is an outright lie. Enriching to weapons grade would require at least 80% enrichment. Iran claims . . . 2.5 per cent. See how that isn't the same thing? See how you can't blow up anything with 2.5 percent? The claim is not only flat wrong, but it is misleading in another way. You need 16,000 centrifuges, hooked up so that they cascade, to make enough enriched uranium for a bomb in any realistic time fame, even if you know how to get the 80 percent! Iran has . . . 164. See how that isn't the same? 5) Israel May 'Go it Alone' against Iran Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post, Aug. 24, 2006 http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525933028&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Israel is carefully watching the world's reaction to Iran's continued refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, with some high-level officials arguing it is now clear that when it comes to stopping Iran, Israel "may have to go it alone." One senior source said there was a need to understand that "when push comes to shove," Israel would have to be prepared to "slow down" the Iranian nuclear threat by itself. Having said this, he did not rule out the possibility of US military action, but said that if this were to take place, it would probably not occur until the spring or summer of 2008, a few months before President George W. Bush leaves the international stage. The US presidential elections, which Bush cannot contest because of term limits, are in November 2008. 6) In Muted Response to Iran, U.S. and Allies Seek Edge Helene Cooper, New York Times, August 25, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25diplo.html After demanding for three months that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment or face penalties, the formal reaction from the US and its European allies to Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment has been low-key. It is all about a public relations strategy intended to make the West appear patient and measured in dealing with the issue, US and European diplomats say. State Department officials pressed to "keep the temperature down." They pushed for a concerted media strategy that would help keep Russia and China on board. There were no official mentions of penalties, despite the looming Aug. 31 deadline that six countries have given for Iran to suspend enrichment. US and European diplomats still plan to pursue penalties if Iran does not suspend uranium enrichment by the Aug. 31 deadline set by the UN Security Council. But they do not want to appear trigger happy. US officials said Rice received assurances in June that Russia would, at a minimum, sign on to a first phase of weak sanctions if Iran refused to suspend uranium enrichment. Those penalties would probably include a ban on travel by Iranian officials and curbs on imports of nuclear-related technology. But Russian and Chinese cooperation is by no means assured. European officials said that the foreign ministers were not expected seriously to take up the Iran issue until Sept. 1. 7) Foes Say Tehran Builds Fast Uranium Centrifuges Craig S. Smith, New York Times, August 25, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25nuke.html An Iranian opposition group said Thursday that Iran had built at least 15 advanced uranium enrichment machines that could speed production of nuclear fuel and asserted that the country would have hundreds more by next year. The group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, has been correct before. In August 2002, its announcement that Tehran was pursuing a secret uranium enrichment program led in part to the current standoff over the Iranian nuclear development program. But many of the group's subsequent disclosures have been either less significant or wrong. 8) Russia Rejects Sanctions Against Iran Reuters, August 25, 2006, Filed at 11:50 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html Russia rejected Friday any talk now of sanctions against Iran and France warned against conflict with Tehran, raising doubts whether it will face swift penalties for not halting nuclear work by an August 31 deadline. Responding to an offer of economic incentives to stop enriching uranium, Iran hinted to six world powers on Tuesday it could rein in its program as a result of talks to implement the package -- but not as a precondition as they demand. " I believe that the question is not so serious at the moment for the U.N. Security Council or the group of six to consider any introduction of sanctions,'' Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said. "Russia stands for further political and diplomatic efforts to settle the issue.'' Some analysts believe Arab and Muslim world anger over Washington's perceived slowness to curb Israel's anti-Hizbollah blitz, which killed mainly civilians, could erode support in the 15-member Security Council for a showdown with Iran. Iran says it wants nuclear energy solely for its economy. Western leaders suspect a disguised effort to build atom bombs, although most analysts believe Tehran remains 3-10 years away from mastering the requisite technology. One analyst said "there will be high-level talks on whether there is some formula regarding sequencing of suspension'' based on Iran's hint it could stop enrichment as the upshot of incentives talks. "The question is whether there is a basis to fudge the sequencing -- that is, Iran commits to suspension after a very short time period of negotiations." Iraq 9) Shiite Leader Urges Iraqi Politicians to Stay Home and Work Harder Paul von Zielbauer, New York Times, August 25, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25baghdad.html Iraq's most prominent Shiite religious leader has urged government ministers and members of Parliament to refrain from taking trips abroad and to focus on improving the lives of ordinary citizens. The Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who maintains a broad following of Shiites in Iraq, Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, asked officials "not to travel abroad and to stay in touch with the people who elected them," said a spokesman. "We know that there is a considerable amount of danger in this," he added, referring to the violence that has plagued Baghdad, "but they have to fully fulfill their responsibilities." 10) British Leave Iraqi Base; Militia Supporters Jubilant: Some Troops Will Reposition to Border With Iran Amit R. Paley, Washington Post, Friday, August 25, 2006; A14 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401917.html British troops abandoned a major base in southern Iraq on Thursday, a move that anti-occupation cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called the first expulsion of U.S.-led coalition forces from an Iraqi urban center. "This is the first Iraqi city that has kicked out the occupier!" trumpeted a message from Sadr's office that played on car-mounted speakers. "We have to celebrate this occasion!" Maj. Charlie Burbridge, a British military spokesman, acknowledged that constant shelling of the base in Amarah by militia forces were part of the reason the camp closed. "By no longer presenting a static target, we reduce the ability of the militias to strike us," he said. But he rejected Sadr's claim that the British had been defeated. "It's very difficult to claim a victory without causing significant casualties." The mood was quite different in Amarah, where jubilant residents flocked to Sadr's office to offer their congratulations. Drivers in the street honked their car horns in celebration. Some prepared to take to the streets to rejoice. "Today is a holiday in our province," said an unemployed 45-year-old. He said anger toward the British reached fever pitch in recent days after soldiers entered a mosque and arrested several local men. The provincial government is controlled by Sadr's movement, he said. Lebanon 11) Inquiry Opened Into Israeli Use of U.S. Bombs David S. Cloud, New York Times, August 25, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25cluster.html The State Department is investigating whether Israel's use of American-made cluster bombs in southern Lebanon violated agreements with the US that restrict when it can employ such weapons. The investigation began after reports that three types of American cluster munitions have been found in many areas of southern Lebanon and were responsible for civilian casualties. The State Department has held up a shipment of M-26 artillery rockets, a cluster weapon. The inquiry will likely focus on whether Israel properly informed the US about its use of the weapons and whether targets were strictly military. The agreements that govern Israel's use of American cluster munitions are said to require that the munitions be used only against organized Arab armies and clearly defined military targets under conditions similar to the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973. A report by the UN Mine Action Coordination Center said it had found unexploded bomblets, including hundreds of American types, in 249 locations south of the Litani River. Officials say it is unlikely that Israel will be found to have violated the Arms Export Control Act, which requires foreign governments that receive American weapons to use them for legitimate self-defense. Proving that Israel's campaign did not constitute self-defense would be difficult, especially in view of Bush's public support. If Israel is found to have violated the classified agreement covering cluster bombs, it is not clear what actions the US might take. In 1982, delivery of cluster-bomb shells to Israel was suspended after the Reagan administration determined that Israel "may" have used them against civilian areas. But the decision to impose a moratorium was made under pressure from Congress, which conducted a long investigation of the issue. 12) Chirac doubts Lebanon force size http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5284284.stm French President Jacques Chirac has said sending 15,000 peacekeeping troops to southern Lebanon is "excessive". In related developments: An opinion poll in Israel has suggested that a majority of Israelis want Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to resign over the conduct of the conflict. The poll, carried out by the independent Dahaf Institute, showed 63% of Israelis saying Olmert should go, and a majority saying they wanted the defence minister and the military chief of staff to resign. 13) Lebanese and Aid Groups Find Dangers in the Rubble Robert F. Worth And John Kifner, New York Times, August 25, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25lebanon.html Although nearly all of the roughly 900,000 refugees who fled the monthlong war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas have returned, fully a third cannot move back into their family homes, aid agencies say. The homes are ruined or are too dangerous to inhabit because of unexploded cluster bombs, which have killed 11 people and wounded 43 since the cease-fire began 10 days ago. Lebanon, the UN and independent aid agencies are totaling an enormous tally of damage that includes airports, ports, water and sewage treatment facilities, electrical plants, 80 bridges and 94 roads, more than 25 gas stations, 900 other businesses and 30,000 homes or shops. But what surprises villagers is what they see as mean, gratuitous destruction by Israeli soldiers still stationed nearby after the cease-fire took effect: water and electricity systems smashed, furniture and valuables shattered or burned, cars shot up or destroyed. "They took the imam's car and returned it completely ruined," said Muhammad Hamoud, the village mayor. "They want us to be afraid." In Khiam, the Israelis smashed the water tanks and pipes, said the deputy mayor, Muhammad Abdullah. 14) France Offers Many More Troops for Lebanon Craig S. Smith, New York Times, August 25, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25force.html France pledged Thursday to send a total of 2,000 troops to the UN multinational peacekeeping force for Lebanon. UN diplomats emphasize that the multinational force, which the resolution says can be as large as 15,000 troops, was never intended to be entirely European. The resolution says only that Europe must form a "credible core" of the force, and Europeans say they expect their troops to make up about a third of the total. UN officials say that for all the complaints, this peacekeeping force is being assembled faster than any in history. They hope to be able to put 3,000 fresh soldiers on the ground in Lebanon as early as the end of the month, with the rest of the force in place by November. France's generals resisted a strong commitment until they obtained guarantees from the parties to the conflict and from the UN. Chirac said those guarantees had been given. People familiar with those clarifications said they included stronger than usual rules of engagement that would permit the peacekeepers to use "deadly force" against anyone interfering with their mandate. Chirac said he had lobbied other heads of state to follow his country's example in committing troops, and he said several European countries would do so, together with "important Muslim countries in Asia." The latter was a reference to Malaysia and Indonesia, which have both offered significant contributions to the force. But neither has diplomatic relations with Israel, which has expressed opposition to the inclusion of such countries in the force. [Note that Lebanon itself does not have diplomatic relations with Israel, so by this logic, the Lebanese army should also be excluded from the area south of the Litani - JFP.] Afghanistan 15) 8 Killed in Raid by U.S. Forces in Afghanistan Abdul Waheed Wafa, New York Times, August 25, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/asia/25afghan.html Eight civilians, including a child, were killed in an operation by American forces in eastern Afghanistan on Thursday, an Afghan police official said. US forces acknowledged killing a child and injuring a woman but said the seven men also killed were "Qaeda facilitators" who had opened fire on them as they approached a compound. The Afghan government has sent a team to investigate the killings, said Abdul Sabour Allah Yar, deputy police chief of Kunar province. He said the men killed were elders who had gathered in the house to resolve a family dispute. Yar said that judging from his own conversation with American commanders, they had been wrongly informed that the meeting was a Qaeda gathering. He also said the provincial authorities had not been told of the operation, something President Hamid Karzai has repeatedly requested in an effort to avoid civilian casualties. Mexico 16) Was the Mexican Election Stolen? Questions Raised Over Results
From Preliminary Recount
Democracy Now, Thursday, August 24th, 2006 http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/08/24/1425237 Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research's says Mexico's handling of the recount raises questions about the lack of transparency in the recount and the election. CEPR recently published an analysis of Mexico's recounted ballots (http://www.cepr.net/publications/mexico_recount_2006_08.pdf) that suggests that the process currently underway will not satisfy concerns about the legitimacy of the election unless there is a significant increase in public dislosure. -------- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org
