Just Foreign Policy News October 4, 2006 http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/index.html
The Just Foreign Policy News Summary is now podcast daily. To subscribe, see http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/podcasts/podcast_howto.html. Summary: U.S. Democrats criticized Senate Majority Leader Frist for saying that the Afghan war against Taliban guerrillas can never be won militarily and for favoring bringing "people who call themselves Taliban" into the government. Frist said Monday in Afghanistan that Taliban fighters are too numerous and too popular to be defeated. "You need to bring them into a more transparent type of government," he said. Democrats accused Frist of trying to "cut and run" in Afghanistan. "Senator Frist now suggests that the best way forward in Afghanistan is to coddle the Taliban by welcoming Taliban members into a coalition government, as if 9/11 had never happened," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said. Pelosi's criticism is unfortunate. If it's wrong for Republicans to try to silence debate of U.S. foreign policy by accusing critics of cowardice, it's wrong for Democrats to do it. If it's wrong to do it with respect to Iraq, it's wrong to do it with respect to Afghanistan. To express support for Senator Frist's suggestion that the U.S. seek a political accommodation with supporters of the Taliban, you can write a letter to a newspaper using this link: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/fristafg_ltr.html Note that this story has been mostly ignored by mainstream press: only the AP is covering it. Neither the New York Times nor the Washington Post has run an article on it. This is striking, given Frist's stature. If you didn't read the Just Foreign Policy News, you might not know about it. The US, France and Britain rejected Iran's proposal that France organize and monitor the production of enriched uranium inside Iran. Washington has consistently taken the position that any uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is out of the question because it could give Iran the ability to master the nuclear fuel cycle. [This U.S. position has no basis in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.] A majority of U.S. adults say President Bush has deliberately misled the public about progress in Iraq and opposition to the war matches an all- time high, according to a poll conducted for CNN. Secretary of State Rice is under pressure from Arab allies to renew efforts for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. Arab officials expressed frustration that the US seems far more focused on the issue of Iran's nuclear program. Iran British forces in Iraq have found no evidence to support US claims that Iran is providing weapons and training in Iraq, the Washington Post reports. In a policy brief on US options regarding Iran's nuclear program, the Cato Institute's Ted Carpenter argues sanctions won't work, subversion won't work and could backfire, and air strikes won't work and would cause a terrible backlash. The US could accept Iran as a member of the nuclear club and rely on its own deterrent power as it has done successfully in the past, but the best option would be to normalize diplomatic and economic relations in exchange for Iran's agreement to open its nuclear program to rigorous inspections. Iran's president has ordered the country's nuclear sites be opened to foreign tourists to prove its program is peaceful, the BBC reports. Iraq Two months after a security crackdown began in the capital, U.S. military deaths appear to be rising, even as fatalities among Iraqi security forces have fallen. U.S. officials said the recent increases could be attributable to U.S. troops' greater exposure to combat since redeploying in early August from heavily guarded bases to Baghdad's streets. Iraqi authorities have taken a brigade of up to 700 policemen out of service and put members under investigation for "possible complicity" with death squads following a mass kidnapping earlier this week. Afghanistan An unexpectedly fierce and prolonged Taliban offensive that began last spring has U.S. and NATO officials deeply worried that they face a serious insurgency, writes Jim Lobe for Inter Press Service. Greatly compounding their concern is Pakistan's ceasefire agreement with pro-Taliban tribal leaders. A senior U.S. military officer said cross-border attacks by Taliban forces had tripled since the truce took effect. Contents: U.S. 1) Frist Draws Criticism for Comments On Taliban Associated Press, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; Page A16 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/03/AR2006100301284.html Democrats criticized Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist yesterday for saying that the Afghan war against Taliban guerrillas can never be won militarily and for favoring bringing "people who call themselves Taliban" into the government. Frist, who was in Afghanistan, said Monday that Taliban fighters are too numerous and too popular to be defeated. "You need to bring them into a more transparent type of government," he said. Democrats accused Frist of trying to "cut and run" in Afghanistan, something Republicans have been accusing Democrats of seeking to do in Iraq. "Senator Frist now suggests that the best way forward in Afghanistan is to coddle the Taliban by welcoming Taliban members into a coalition government, as if 9/11 had never happened," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said. [To express support for Senator Frist's suggestion that the U.S. seek a political accommodation with supporters of the Taliban, you can use this link: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/fristafg_ltr.html] 2) Iran's Proposal to End Nuclear Standoff Is Rejected by the West Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, October 4, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/04/world/middleeast/04iran.html Iran has proposed that France organize and monitor the production of enriched uranium inside Iran, complicating negotiations over the fate of its nuclear program. The US, France and Britain rejected the proposal Tuesday, saying it was a stalling tactic and fell far short of the UN Security Council's demand that Iran freeze all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities. The proposal, made by Mohammad Saeidi, deputy director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, was presented as a sign of flexibility in negotiations between Iran and six world powers represented by the EU. A senior French official said: "This is totally excluded. There is nothing substantive behind it." The US is giving Iran until the end of the week to declare whether it will agree to fully stop making enriched uranium or face sanctions. Enriched uranium can be used to make energy or to fuel weapons, and Washington has consistently taken the position that any uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is out of the question because it could give Iran the ability to master the nuclear fuel cycle. Secretary of State Rice and the foreign ministers of Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany have discussed the possibility of meeting in London Friday to plot a strategy for the next steps, officials said. While at a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Tuesday, Rice said there was nothing new in the Iranian proposal. "The Iranians have floated it before," she said, suggesting that the US would reject any proposal that allowed Iran to enrich and reprocess uranium on its own soil. The Iranian proposal, comes as Iran has hardened its position in negotiations between Ali Larijani, its chief nuclear negotiator, and Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief. Solana reported in recent days that Larijani rejected calls to halt key nuclear activities even though Iran could face sanctions by the Security Council, European officials said. Instead Larijani floated the idea of the creation of an international consortium to administer Iran's production of enriched uranium. Larijani told Solana Iran's current enrichment activities would have to continue, and that Iran would consider only a temporary halt to the expansion of its uranium enrichment program, officials added. The six powers had been trying to persuade the Iranians to accept a three-month halt on all uranium enrichment activities at Natanz and on construction at the plutonium plant at Arak, EU officials said. Uranium conversion, an earlier stage of processing, would have been allowed to continue at the Isfahan plant. There is frustration among EU governments with Solana for presenting the results of his talks in too positive a light, officials said. Solana has acknowledged lack of progress on substantive issues, telling reporters Monday, "The fundamental matter of suspension has not been agreed." But he has repeatedly pointed to "progress" on peripheral issues, like where and when further negotiations would take place. On Tuesday, Solana appeared to keep the door open to Iran's new proposal, describing it as "interesting," and adding, "This is something we have to analyze in greater detail." In the radio interview, Saeidi proposed that Iran's uranium enrichment activities would be monitored "in a tangible way" by Eurodif, a multinational enrichment consortium based in France, and by Areva, the France-based nuclear energy giant and majority shareholder in Eurodif. 87% of Areva is held by French governmental institutions, and the company has vast interests in the US that it may not want to jeopardize by seeming to negotiate with Iran. 3) Rice Urges 2 Palestinian Groups to Halt Violence Philip Shenon, New York Times, October 4, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/04/world/middleeast/04diplo.html Secretary of State Rice called Tuesday for an end to the new wave of bloodshed between Palestinian factions as she prepared to travel to the West Bank to support the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas. "Innocent Palestinians are caught in this violence, and we call on all parties to stop," Rice said. "The Palestinian people deserve calm." Gunmen linked to Abbas's secular Fatah movement threatened Tuesday to kill three senior leaders of Hamas, the Islamic group that won Palestinian elections in January. The gunmen, Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, accused Hamas leaders of "sedition." The week's violence appeared to complicate Secretary Rice's campaign to drum up support among Arab nations for Abbas in his struggle to form a unity government with Hamas that could be recognized by the US. The Bush administration has said that it would resume financial aid to the Palestinian Authority only if a Hamas-run government agreed to recognize the right of Israel to exist and to forswear violence. Hamas rejects the conditions. 4) Most in CNN Poll Say Bush Misled Public About Iraq Roger Runningen, Bloomberg, October 3 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aFRWtis3fHNg A majority of U.S. adults say President Bush has deliberately misled the public about progress in Iraq and opposition to the war matches an all- time high, according to a poll conducted for CNN. Sept. 29-Oct. 2: 57% said the Iraq War has made the US less safe from terrorism. 58% said that the Bush administration misled the public on how the war is going. 61% said that they oppose the Iraq War. 66% said that they disapprove of the way that Bush is handling the Iraq War. 5) Rice Under Pressure on Mideast Peace Efforts Robin Wright, Washington Post, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; 12:14 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/04/AR2006100400497.html Secretary of State Rice arrived in Jerusalem under pressure from Arab allies to jumpstart the Middle East peace process - as a Hamas official was gunned down by masked assailants and Palestinian Authority President Abbas declared that efforts to forge a unity government between Hamas and his Fatah party had ground to a halt. "There is no dialogue now," Abbas said. In talks Tuesday in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Arab leaders rebuffed the Bush administration's effort to foster a bloc of moderate Arab states to stand against growing militancy in the Middle East. They bluntly told Rice that they do not want to be pitted against other Arab governments and movements, according to senior Arab officials. The solution, U.S. allies told Rice, lies with stronger U.S. leadership in solving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Rice was confronted by pressure from eight governments - Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain - to follow up on promises by Bush to help achieve a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. They questioned whether the administration has the energy or commitment to pull off a solution to the Palestinian issue before Bush leaves office, officials said. Arab officials expressed frustration that the US seems far more focused on the issue of Iran's nuclear program. The new pressure came on the same day as a global appeal by 135 former presidents, prime ministers and Nobel Peace Prize winners from the US, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia for a concerted international effort to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict. The U.S. signatories to the document, released by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, included former president Carter, ex-defense secretary Carlucci, 9/11 Commission vice chairman Hamilton and retired Gen. Clark. On Wednesday, Hamas leader Mohammed Odeh was shot down by masked men as he left a mosque, according to AP. The killing came one day after members of Fatah threatened to kill senior Hamas figures. Some witnesses told AP the assailants who shot Odeh used a vehicle with Israeli license plates, and speculated that the killing may have been the work of undercover Israeli agents. Arab officials said they are increasingly concerned that, since the cutoff of tax revenue by Israel and aid by foreign governments since Hamas formed a government, an already serious humanitarian problem has deepened. On Iran, Egypt's Aboul Gheit said the Arabs listened to Rice but did not agree to any statement or action. Rice warned Tuesday that after weeks of diplomatic delays and Iranian stalling, time has run out for talks. The issue, she added, is no longer just Iran, but the UN's ability to deal effectively with global crises. "I hope that there is still room to resolve this, but the international community is running out of time because soon its own credibility . . . will be a matter of question," Rice said. Rice is tentatively planning to meet with her European counterparts, at the end of her Middle East tour to agree on sanctions to impose on Iran; Security Council action could follow as early as next week. The US has not formally specified which sanctions it supports, although they are widely reported to include a travel ban on Iranian officials involved in the nuclear energy program and a ban on the sale of any technology and hardware that could be used for production of deadly weapons. U.S. officials have said the first actions would be mild but would be followed by tougher measures if Iran failed to comply. Iran 6) British Find No Evidence Of Arms Traffic From Iran Troops in Southeast Iraq Test U.S. Claim of Aid for Militias Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington Post, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; A21 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/03/AR2006100301577.html Since late August, British commandos in the deserts of far southeastern Iraq have been testing one of the most serious charges leveled by the US against Iran: that Iran is secretly supplying weapons, parts, funding and training for attacks on U.S.-led forces in Iraq. A few hundred British troops have taken to the desert in the start of what British officers said would be months of patrols aimed at finding the illicit weapons trafficking from Iran, or any sign of it. "I suspect there's nothing out there," the commander, Lt. Col. Labouchere, said last month. "And I intend to prove it." Other senior British military leaders spoke as explicitly. Britain, whose forces have had responsibility for security in southeastern Iraq since the war began, has found nothing to support the Americans' contention that Iran is providing weapons and training in Iraq, several senior military officials said. "I have not myself seen any evidence - and I don't think any evidence exists - of government-supported or instigated" armed support on Iran's part in Iraq, British Defense Secretary Des Browne. Allegations that Iran or its agents are providing military support for Iraqi Shiite Muslim militias and other armed groups is one of the most contentious issues raising tensions between Washington and Tehran. Most gravely, U.S. generals and diplomats accuse Iran of providing infrared triggers for special explosives that are capable of piercing heavy armor. Evidence of Iranian armed intervention in Iraq is "irrefutable," Brig. Gen. Barbero told Pentagon reporters. The lead U.S. military spokesman in Iraq renews the allegation almost weekly. Iraq's Maysan province is "a funnel for Iranian munitions," said Wayne White, who led the State Department's Iraq intelligence team during the war and now is at the Middle East Institute. But Maj. Dominic Roberts of the Queen's Dragoons said: "We have found no credible evidence to suggest there is weapons smuggling across the border." 7) Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options Ted Galen Carpenter, Cato Institute, September 18, 2006 http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6690 Although it is possible that negotiations may produce a settlement to the issue of Iran's nuclear program, it is more likely that those negotiations will fail. If that happens, U.S. policymakers face a set of highly imperfect options. One option is to seek a UN Security Council resolution imposing economic sanctions. However, sanctions have a poor record of getting regimes to abandon high-priority policies. Even if Russia and China can be induced to overcome their reluctance to endorse sanctions, it is unlikely that such measures would halt Iran's quest for nuclear weapons. A second option is to intensify efforts to subvert Iran's clerical regime. Unfortunately, such a strategy may backfire, undermining the domestic legitimacy of Iranian dissidents. Moreover, there is no certainty that a democratic Iran would choose to be nonnuclear. Option three is to launch preemptive airstrikes against Iran's nuclear installations. That is the most unwise strategy. At most, such strikes would delay, not eliminate, Tehran's program. There is a grave risk that Iran would retaliate with the full range of options at its disposal, including attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and through proxy organizations. Attacking Iran would also further alienate Muslim populations around the world. Option four is to reluctantly accept Iran as a member of the global nuclear weapons club and rely on the deterrent power of America's vast nuclear arsenal. While that strategy is not without risk, the US has successfully deterred other volatile and unsavory regimes, most notably Maoist China during that country's Cultural Revolution. The best option, though, is to try to strike a grand bargain with Iran. Washington should offer to normalize diplomatic and economic relations in exchange for Tehran's agreement to open its nuclear program to rigorous, on-demand international inspections to guarantee that there is no diversion of nuclear material from peaceful purposes to building weapons. 8) Iran 'to open atomic site tours' BBC News, Wednesday, 4 October 2006 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5405476.stm Iran's president has ordered the country's nuclear sites be opened to foreign tourists to prove its program is peaceful, state media report. Possible attractions would include the plants at Isfahan and Natanz, or a reactor being built in Bushehr. So far UN inspectors and reporters are the only foreigners believed to have been allowed to visit the sites. The head of Iran's tourism organisation said President Ahmadinejad had asked his group to study ways for tourists to see the sites. Iraq 9) U.S. Fatalities in Iraq Rise Amid Crackdown Increase may be linked to troops' deployment to the volatile streets of Baghdad, officials say. Solomon Moore, Los Angeles Times, October 4, 2006 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-usdeaths4oct04,1,1391563.story Two months after a security crackdown began in the capital, U.S. military deaths appear to be rising, even as fatalities among Iraqi security forces have fallen, U.S. military sources and analysts said. The U.S. military Tuesday revised to eight its count of American deaths in the capital on Monday, the highest daily toll in a month. In September, 74 U.S. troops died nationwide, about a third of them in Baghdad, according to the military. U.S. officials and military experts said the recent increases could be attributable to U.S. troops' greater exposure to combat since redeploying in early August from heavily guarded bases to Baghdad's streets. 10) Iraqi Police Unit Linked to Militias Sameer N. Yacoub, Associated Press, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; 12:40 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/03/AR2006100300398.html Iraqi authorities have taken a brigade of up to 700 policemen out of service and put members under investigation for "possible complicity" with death squads following a mass kidnapping earlier this week, the U.S. military said Wednesday. The Iraqi police officers were decommissioned following a kidnapping Sunday when gunmen stormed a frozen food plant in the Amil district, abducted 24 workers and shot two others. The bodies of seven of the workers were found hours later but the fate of the others remains unknown. The action appeared aimed at signaling a new seriousness in tackling police collusion with militias at a time when the government is under increased pressure to put an end to the Shiite-Sunni violence that has killed thousands this year and threatened to tear Iraq apart. Sunni leaders blamed Shiite militias for the kidnapping and suggested security forces had turned a blind eye to the attack. The top U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell, said the Iraqi police brigade in the area had been ordered to stand down and was being retrained. "There was some possible complicity in allowing death squad elements to move freely when they should have been impeding them," he told a Baghdad news conference. "The forces in the unit have not put their full allegiance to the government of Iraq and gave their allegiance to others," he said. Afghanistan 11) War on Terror Returning to Its Cradle Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service, Wednesday, October 4, 2006 http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1004-08.htm Five years after the CIA was putting the final touches on a brilliant campaign plan to oust the Taliban and its al Qaeda allies from power, Afghanistan is back in the headlines, and the news isn't good. An unexpectedly fierce and prolonged Taliban offensive that began last spring has U.S. and NATO officials deeply worried that they face a serious insurgency fueled by a thriving drug trade and growing popular disaffection with the government of President Karzai. Greatly compounding their concern is Pakistan's ceasefire agreement with pro-Taliban, Pashtun tribal leaders signed earlier this month to withdraw thousands of army troops from North Waziristan and release several hundred Taliban and al Qaeda militants from jail. The accord, similar to one reached with pro-Taliban forces in South Waziristan two years ago, reportedly obliges the tribal chiefs to prevent Taliban and al Qaeda forces from crossing into Afghanistan, but most experts here considered those pledges a mere face-saving measure that enabled Pakistan's president Musharraf, to insist during his visits with sceptical U.S. officials that he remains committed to the anti-terror fight. Even as Musharraf sat down with Karzai for dinner hosted by Bush last Tuesday, a senior U.S. military officer was telling reporters in Kabul that cross-border attacks by Taliban forces had tripled since the North Waziristan truce actually took effect in late June. Several days later, the Washington Post reported on a captured al Qaeda document that strongly suggested that at least part of the group's top leadership is in fact living in North Waziristan, bolstering claims that the truce had created, in Newsweek magazine's words, a "'Jihadistan'... an autonomous quasi state of religious radicals, mostly belonging to Pashtun tribes..." stretching from central Afghanistan to much of northwestern Pakistan. -------- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of the majority of Americans.
